000 AXNT20 KNHC 171153 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W/71W FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SOUTHWARD TO 12N. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 14N TO HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 69W AND 75W IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. NO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER EXISTS. SURFACE BAROMETRIC PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING IN THIS REGION. THIS WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N31W 12N32W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 30W AND 34W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 23N16W AT THE AFRICA COAST...ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 13N30W AND 9N43W. NO NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE PRESENT AND THUS NO ITCZ HAS BEEN ANALYZED ON THE MAP. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 16N BETWEEN THE AFRICA COAST AND 22W. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 35W AND 37W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N78W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 27N82W...INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN GULF WATERS. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N78W...INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N85W...AND THEN IT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN 90W AND 91W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 90W. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N66W TO GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND IN THE BAHAMAS FROM 23N TO 25N. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO A 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N92W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS BETWEEN 70W AND 80W IN THE WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS OF ALL THE NEARBY COUNTRIES. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W/71W FROM 12N TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 14N TO HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 69W AND 75W IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. PLEASE REFERENCE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS BULLETIN FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THIS TROPICAL WAVE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...MOVING TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 19N85W...REACHING CUBA NEAR 22N81W...TO JUST TO THE SOUTH OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. RAINSHOWERS COVER THE WATERS FROM 20N TO THE ISLE OF YOUTH OF CUBA BETWEEN 83W AND 85W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IS BETWEEN 76W AND CENTRAL AMERICA...HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. THE COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IS SURROUNDED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N78W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 27N82W...INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN GULF WATERS. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N78W...INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N85W...AND THEN IT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N66W TO GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND IN THE BAHAMAS FROM 23N TO 25N. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 45W AND 65W. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 56W AND 58W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 74W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT