000 AXNT20 KNHC 170004 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE W OF CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS FROM 18N27W TO 12N27W CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD AT APPROXIMATELY 15 KT. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THIS WAVE CONTINUES EMBEDDED WITHIN A HIGH MOISTURE REGION THAT EXTENDS FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 23W-31W...HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED TO IT. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING W ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 18N66W TO 12N67W AT 20 KT. MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS VERY WELL OBSERVED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 66W-72W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W AFRICAN COAST NEAR 21N17W AND THEN SW TO 11N30W 8N42W...THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THERE TO THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 5N52W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 21W-25W. CLUSTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 29W-38W. ANOTHER REGION OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 43W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EWD WITH AXIS NEAR 81W. THIS IS SUPPORTING A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N78W ENTERING THE FLORIDA E COAST NEAR 29N81W...IT MOVES FROM THE W FLORIDA COAST NEAR 28N82W AND CONTINUES WESTWARD ENTERING LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 29N90W. PRE-FRONTAL MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING PARALLEL TO THE FRONT WITHIN 140 NM. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1015 MB HIGH IN THE NW GULF NEAR 28N93W. ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE WRN GULF AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER SRN NEW MEXICO NEAR 32N106W. IN 24 HOURS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WHILE THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD. CARIBBEAN SEA... ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS CROSSING CENTRAL CUBA AND PRODUCING HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO THE SE OF THE ISLAND. THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN ARE IN A HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT AS SHOWN BY THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...MOSTLY ASSOCIATED TO A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 18N66W TO 12N67W. NUMEROUS MODERATE STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THIS WAVE IS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 66W-72W. ALOFT...WEAK UPPER RIDGING REMAINS FROM CENTRAL TO WESTERN CARIBBEAN. IN 24 HOURS THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD WITH THE TRADE WINDS BRINGING MORE PRECIPITATION TO LA HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT IS IN THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 30N78W AND ENTERING THE FLORIDA E COAST NEAR 29N81W. PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ASSOCIATED TO THE SURFACE TROUGH MENTIONED IN THE CARIBBEAN DISCUSSION. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC N OF 20N...AT THE UPPER LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THIS REGION. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS/GARCIA