000 AXNT20 KNHC 270554 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THAT RUNS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N83W...THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 20N TO 21.5N BETWEEN 84W AND 87W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 27/0000 UTC WAS 1.67 INCHES. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT A CIRCULATION MAY BE FORMING ABOUT 125 MILES TO THE EAST OF CANCUN MEXICO. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. ANYONE WHO LIVES IN THE AREA AND/OR ANYONE WHO HAS INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 15 MPH. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N21W 12N25W. NO PRECIPITATION IS EVIDENT WITH THIS WAVE. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE SOUTH OF THE WAVE IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 11N47W 7N49W 4N50W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 30 TO 45 NM RADIUS OF 9N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 47W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 50W AND 54W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N56W 15N58W 11N59W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH A 25N53W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 13N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 22N TO 19N9W TO 21N13W 8N30W 6N38W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N38W TO 5N45W AND 10N62W IN NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 26W AND 36W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE WEST OF 30W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N79W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE WEST OF 75W...COVERING THE BAHAMAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO THE REMNANT OF A SMALL YUCATAN CHANNEL CYCLONIC CENTER...TO ANOTHER CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR 21N95W. EARLIER YUCATAN PENINSULA PRECIPITATION HAS WEAKENED. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN MEXICO FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO TOWARD THE MEXICO BORDER WITH GUATEMALA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA AND BEYOND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THESE FEATURES ARE PUSHING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION INTO THE PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 90W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 20N TO 21.5N BETWEEN 84W AND 87W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 27/0000 UTC WAS 1.67 INCHES. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN COLOMBIA BEYOND NORTHERN COSTA RICA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM TO THE EAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 12N TO 13N. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N56W 15N58W 11N59W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH A 25N53W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 13N60W NEAR BARBADOS. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR GUADELOUPE FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 27/0000 UTC WAS 0.48 INCHES. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N79W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE WEST OF 75W...COVERING THE BAHAMAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS PASSES THROUGH 32N24W TO 29N27W AND 27N30W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 27N30W TO 32N40W AND 32N47W. A SECOND TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 32N47W... THROUGH AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N53W...TO 13N60W NEAR BARBADOS AT THE EDGE OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR GUADELOUPE FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 27/0000 UTC WAS 0.48 INCHES. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 51W AND 54W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 31N50W 28N60W 29N73W TO NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA ALONG 29N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT