000 AXNT20 KNHC 201751 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BRET AT 20/1500 UTC IS NEAR 31.8N 73.7W MOVING NORTHEAST 8 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 255 MI... 415 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA... OR ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM W OF BERMUDA. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON BRET ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. THERE IS 20 KT OF NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE CENTER FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 71W-75W. A 1010 MB LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 475 NM EAST OF BERMUDA AT 34N55W. IT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION E OF THE CENTER FROM 32N-36N BETWEEN 53W-56W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER WATERS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING W AT 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEEP MOISTURE SURGE DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 38W-45W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 38W-45W. A CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING W AT 20 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 75W-78W. A BAY OF CAMPECHE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W TO THE SOUTH OF 23N MOVING W AT 20 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER AFRICA EXTENDS FROM 20N0W TO 18N15W TO THE COAST AT 11N15W THEN CONTINUES SW TO 6N28W TO 12N36W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 6N46W TO SOUTH AMERICA AT 5N52W. WIDELY MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 18W-25W...AND FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 21W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO. SEE ABOVE. A 1016 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N87W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FURTHER W OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 88W-95W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N90W. EXPECT... MORE SHOWERS OVER THE W GULF... THE CENTRAL GULF...AND S FLORIDA...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO PANAMA TO BEYOND COSTA RICA FROM 7N75W TO 9N80W TO BEYOND 10N86W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER PANAMA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 78W-84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS S OFF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 66W-72W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N72W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N88W. EXPECT... THE TROPICAL WAVE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO BE THE PREDOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... T.S. BRET IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC MOVING NE...WHILE ANOTHER DEEPENING LOW IS FURTHER E MOVING NE. SEE ABOVE. A LARGE 1035 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 39N30W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 25N60W. EXPECT ...THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W AT 20 KT WITH CONVECTION AND BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCER IN THE ATLANTIC S OF 20N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA 000 AXNT20 KNHC 201751 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BRET AT 20/1500 UTC IS NEAR 31.8N 73.7W MOVING NORTHEAST 8 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 255 MI... 415 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA... OR ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM W OF BERMUDA. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON BRET ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. THERE IS 20 KT OF NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE CENTER FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 71W-75W. A 1010 MB LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 475 NM EAST OF BERMUDA AT 34N55W. IT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION E OF THE CENTER FROM 32N-36N BETWEEN 53W-56W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER WATERS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING W AT 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEEP MOISTURE SURGE DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 38W-45W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 38W-45W. A CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING W AT 20 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 75W-78W. A BAY OF CAMPECHE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W TO THE SOUTH OF 23N MOVING W AT 20 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER AFRICA EXTENDS FROM 20N0W TO 18N15W TO THE COAST AT 11N15W THEN CONTINUES SW TO 6N28W TO 12N36W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 6N46W TO SOUTH AMERICA AT 5N52W. WIDELY MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 18W-25W...AND FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 21W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO. SEE ABOVE. A 1016 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N87W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FURTHER W OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 88W-95W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N90W. EXPECT... MORE SHOWERS OVER THE W GULF... THE CENTRAL GULF...AND S FLORIDA...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO PANAMA TO BEYOND COSTA RICA FROM 7N75W TO 9N80W TO BEYOND 10N86W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER PANAMA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 78W-84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS S OFF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 66W-72W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N72W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N88W. EXPECT... THE TROPICAL WAVE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO BE THE PREDOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... T.S. BRET IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC MOVING NE...WHILE ANOTHER DEEPENING LOW IS FURTHER E MOVING NE. SEE ABOVE. A LARGE 1035 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 39N30W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 25N60W. EXPECT ...THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W AT 20 KT WITH CONVECTION AND BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCER IN THE ATLANTIC S OF 20N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA