000 AXNT20 KNHC 181746 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM BRET IS CENTERED NEAR 28.1N 77.3W AT 18/1800 UTC MOVING NNE AT 5 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 76W-78W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W/30W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING W AT 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEEP MOISTURE SURGE DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. A CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W TO THE SOUTH OF 21N MOVING W AT 20 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. BROAD LOW LEVEL CLOUD CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS ALSO OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 59W-62W...AND OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 60W-66W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W TO THE SOUTH OF 21N MOVING W AT 20 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER JAMAICA. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER AFRICA FROM 25N0W TO 24N7W TO THE COAST AT 21N17W THEN CONTINUES SW TO 16N23W TO 10N26W TO 6N36W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 6N37W TO SOUTH AMERICA AT 5N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-20N BETWEEN 20W-24W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 14W-29W...AND FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 30W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A SMALL SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO ALONG 21N97W 18N93W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 95W-99W. ELSEWHERE...ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER S MISSISSIPPI AND S LOUISIANA ALONG 32N89W 29N93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 89W-94W. ANOTHER AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 85W-88W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS FAIR WEATHER WITH 10 KT SE SURFACE FLOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS PRODUCING NE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT... MORE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND W GULF AND E TEXAS...AS WELL AS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SEA...AND ANOTHER IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN TO BEYOND COSTA RICA FROM 9N70W TO BEYOND 10N85W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM INLAND OVER VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 66W-76W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN... COSTA RICA... NICARAGUA....FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 77W-85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 80W-83W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N82W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 22N68W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 15N61W. EXPECT... THE TROPICAL WAVES AND THE MONSOON TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO BE THE PREDOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... T.S. BRET IS N OF THE N BAHAMAS. SEE ABOVE. THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALSO OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N53W 30N55W 32N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A LARGE 1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 42N29W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 32N45W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT...WHILE T.S. BRET MOVES NE...AND THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W AT 20 KT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA/PAW 000 AXNT20 KNHC 181746 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM BRET IS CENTERED NEAR 28.1N 77.3W AT 18/1800 UTC MOVING NNE AT 5 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 76W-78W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W/30W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING W AT 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEEP MOISTURE SURGE DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. A CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W TO THE SOUTH OF 21N MOVING W AT 20 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. BROAD LOW LEVEL CLOUD CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS ALSO OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 59W-62W...AND OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 60W-66W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W TO THE SOUTH OF 21N MOVING W AT 20 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER JAMAICA. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER AFRICA FROM 25N0W TO 24N7W TO THE COAST AT 21N17W THEN CONTINUES SW TO 16N23W TO 10N26W TO 6N36W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 6N37W TO SOUTH AMERICA AT 5N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-20N BETWEEN 20W-24W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 14W-29W...AND FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 30W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A SMALL SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO ALONG 21N97W 18N93W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 95W-99W. ELSEWHERE...ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER S MISSISSIPPI AND S LOUISIANA ALONG 32N89W 29N93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 89W-94W. ANOTHER AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 85W-88W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS FAIR WEATHER WITH 10 KT SE SURFACE FLOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS PRODUCING NE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT... MORE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND W GULF AND E TEXAS...AS WELL AS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SEA...AND ANOTHER IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN TO BEYOND COSTA RICA FROM 9N70W TO BEYOND 10N85W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM INLAND OVER VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 66W-76W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN... COSTA RICA... NICARAGUA....FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 77W-85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 80W-83W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N82W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 22N68W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 15N61W. EXPECT... THE TROPICAL WAVES AND THE MONSOON TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO BE THE PREDOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... T.S. BRET IS N OF THE N BAHAMAS. SEE ABOVE. THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALSO OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N53W 30N55W 32N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A LARGE 1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 42N29W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 32N45W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT...WHILE T.S. BRET MOVES NE...AND THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W AT 20 KT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA/PAW