000 AXNT20 KNHC 160008 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N36W 16N36W 12N34W. THIS WAVE SHOWS UP WELL IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY METSAT HIGH DENSITY WINDS FOR THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. ASCAT DATA SHOW E TO SE WINDS TO 20 KT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE NOTED FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N48W 10N49W 07N49W. IT HAS A DISTINCT MOSTLY MID LEVEL ROTATION NOTED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 46W AND 49W. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84 SOUTH OF 22 EXTENDING FROM WESTERN CUBA TO EASTERN HONDURAS. THE WAVE IS STARTING TO INTERACT WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...AND IS IN PHASE WITH AN AREA OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS MOVING INTO NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS AT THE NORTH END OF A BROAD CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER COSTA RICA AND SE NICARAGUA. MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EMBEDDED IN THIS AREA ALONG THE NICARAGUAN COAST. THE WAVE WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 11N83W ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND NORTHEASTERN COSTA RICA. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS FEATURE AS A VERY BROAD SYSTEM WITH WELL DEFINED BANDING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED TO THE LOW TOPPED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE TO THE NORTH AS NOTED ABOVE. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE OVER SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND ADJACENT WATERS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RAINFALL. UPPER DIFFLUENCE...ABUNDANT UPPER MOISTURE...AND CONVERGENT MONSOONAL LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED TRAINING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 22N TO 24N05W TO 08N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO 09N50W TO 06N59W...AND BECOMING INDISTINCT OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N WITHIN 120 S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 18W AND 26N. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ARE NOTED ON THE PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM S FLORIDA TO TEXAS. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY STATIONARY THROUGH SAT. WEAK SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ARE STARTING TO DIMINISH. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 12N65W TO OVER JAMAICA. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTS ALONG THIS UPPER TROUGH AXIS...PRODUCING AN ELONGATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS MOVING NORTH TOWARD COASTS OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN JAMAICA. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS ARE ALSO ACTIVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER CYCLONE. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING INTO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W AND THE 1008 MB LOW PRES OVER COSTA RICA AND SE NICARAGUA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N60W TO 27N70W THEN BECOMES STATIONARY TO NE FLORIDA. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND LIGHT RAIN IS ACTIVE TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RIDGING EXTENDS FROM A 1036 MB HIGH OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 40N32W...SW TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES AND THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 35W. FURTHER EAST...ASCAT DATA SHOW FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES AND THE AFRICAN COAST. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ CHRISTENSEN 000 AXNT20 KNHC 160008 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N36W 16N36W 12N34W. THIS WAVE SHOWS UP WELL IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY METSAT HIGH DENSITY WINDS FOR THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. ASCAT DATA SHOW E TO SE WINDS TO 20 KT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE NOTED FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N48W 10N49W 07N49W. IT HAS A DISTINCT MOSTLY MID LEVEL ROTATION NOTED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 46W AND 49W. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84 SOUTH OF 22 EXTENDING FROM WESTERN CUBA TO EASTERN HONDURAS. THE WAVE IS STARTING TO INTERACT WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...AND IS IN PHASE WITH AN AREA OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS MOVING INTO NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS AT THE NORTH END OF A BROAD CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER COSTA RICA AND SE NICARAGUA. MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EMBEDDED IN THIS AREA ALONG THE NICARAGUAN COAST. THE WAVE WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 11N83W ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND NORTHEASTERN COSTA RICA. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS FEATURE AS A VERY BROAD SYSTEM WITH WELL DEFINED BANDING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED TO THE LOW TOPPED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE TO THE NORTH AS NOTED ABOVE. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE OVER SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND ADJACENT WATERS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RAINFALL. UPPER DIFFLUENCE...ABUNDANT UPPER MOISTURE...AND CONVERGENT MONSOONAL LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED TRAINING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 22N TO 24N05W TO 08N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO 09N50W TO 06N59W...AND BECOMING INDISTINCT OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N WITHIN 120 S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 18W AND 26N. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ARE NOTED ON THE PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM S FLORIDA TO TEXAS. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY STATIONARY THROUGH SAT. WEAK SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ARE STARTING TO DIMINISH. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 12N65W TO OVER JAMAICA. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTS ALONG THIS UPPER TROUGH AXIS...PRODUCING AN ELONGATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS MOVING NORTH TOWARD COASTS OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN JAMAICA. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS ARE ALSO ACTIVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER CYCLONE. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING INTO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W AND THE 1008 MB LOW PRES OVER COSTA RICA AND SE NICARAGUA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N60W TO 27N70W THEN BECOMES STATIONARY TO NE FLORIDA. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND LIGHT RAIN IS ACTIVE TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RIDGING EXTENDS FROM A 1036 MB HIGH OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 40N32W...SW TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES AND THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 35W. FURTHER EAST...ASCAT DATA SHOW FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES AND THE AFRICAN COAST. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ CHRISTENSEN