000 AXNT20 KNHC 151748 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N35W 17N34W 12N33W. THIS WAVE SHOWS UP WELL IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 32W AND 40W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N47W 9N46W 5N46W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 46W AND 49W. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W TO THE SOUTH OF 22N ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN CUBA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 82W AND 84W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATERS FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS FORMED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 11N83W ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND NORTHEASTERN COSTA RICA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 10N82W AND 12N82W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO WERE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND NORTHEASTERN COSTA RICA A FEW HOURS AGO. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THIS PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN WARMING DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS AND THE AREAS OF CLOUDS AND STILL POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION HAVE MOVED INLAND. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 26N TO 26N12W TO 13N16W TO 10N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N20W TO 11N33W...AND BECOMING INDISTINCT NEAR 10N45W. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA. THE COMPARATIVELY STRONGEST RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 49W AND 52W IN EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 27N. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 27N. THE WESTERN CUBA UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER FROM 24 HOURS AGO NOW IS NEAR 22N91W...ABOUT 80 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 32N... AND ACROSS GEORGIA INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA AND PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE FRONT EVENTUALLY TRAILS NORTHWESTWARD... BEYOND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. A SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COLD FRONT FROM NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA BEYOND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 82W IN FLORIDA AND 95W AT THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE 22N84W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED WESTWARD AND NOW IS JUST OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE AREA OF PUERTO RICO AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS HAS BEEN COVERED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FOR AT LEAST THE LAST 48 HOURS OR SO. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 15/1200 WAS 2.18 INCHES. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE ISLAND. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 20N54W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 16N58W... AND A 15N65W EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...CAUGHT UP IN BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LARGER-SCALE ATLANTIC OCEAN- TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 43N62W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 32N61W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW BLENDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH/AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IN THE AREA THAT GOES FROM 32N TO 29N BETWEEN 58W AND 80W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 29N66W 29N75W...BEYOND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N86W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR BERMUDA FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 15/1200 UTC IS 0.87 OF AN INCH. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 57W AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. COAST. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 50W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N51W TO 27N50W TO A 20N54W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 16N58W TO 15N65W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NEAR THE 20N54W CYCLONIC CENTER...AND FROM 32N TO 33N BETWEEN 47W AND 48W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N28W TO 24N45W TO 21N58W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 56W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N23W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 21N26W TO 13N32W. A SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER ALSO IS NEAR 31N12W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT 000 AXNT20 KNHC 151748 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N35W 17N34W 12N33W. THIS WAVE SHOWS UP WELL IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 32W AND 40W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N47W 9N46W 5N46W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 46W AND 49W. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W TO THE SOUTH OF 22N ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN CUBA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 82W AND 84W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATERS FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS FORMED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 11N83W ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND NORTHEASTERN COSTA RICA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 10N82W AND 12N82W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO WERE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND NORTHEASTERN COSTA RICA A FEW HOURS AGO. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THIS PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN WARMING DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS AND THE AREAS OF CLOUDS AND STILL POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION HAVE MOVED INLAND. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 26N TO 26N12W TO 13N16W TO 10N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N20W TO 11N33W...AND BECOMING INDISTINCT NEAR 10N45W. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA. THE COMPARATIVELY STRONGEST RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 49W AND 52W IN EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 27N. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 27N. THE WESTERN CUBA UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER FROM 24 HOURS AGO NOW IS NEAR 22N91W...ABOUT 80 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 32N... AND ACROSS GEORGIA INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA AND PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE FRONT EVENTUALLY TRAILS NORTHWESTWARD... BEYOND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. A SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COLD FRONT FROM NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA BEYOND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 82W IN FLORIDA AND 95W AT THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE 22N84W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED WESTWARD AND NOW IS JUST OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE AREA OF PUERTO RICO AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS HAS BEEN COVERED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FOR AT LEAST THE LAST 48 HOURS OR SO. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 15/1200 WAS 2.18 INCHES. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE ISLAND. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 20N54W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 16N58W... AND A 15N65W EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...CAUGHT UP IN BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LARGER-SCALE ATLANTIC OCEAN- TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 43N62W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 32N61W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW BLENDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH/AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IN THE AREA THAT GOES FROM 32N TO 29N BETWEEN 58W AND 80W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 29N66W 29N75W...BEYOND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N86W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR BERMUDA FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 15/1200 UTC IS 0.87 OF AN INCH. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 57W AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. COAST. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 50W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N51W TO 27N50W TO A 20N54W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 16N58W TO 15N65W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NEAR THE 20N54W CYCLONIC CENTER...AND FROM 32N TO 33N BETWEEN 47W AND 48W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N28W TO 24N45W TO 21N58W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 56W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N23W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 21N26W TO 13N32W. A SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER ALSO IS NEAR 31N12W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT