000 AXNT20 KNHC 072349 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU OCT 07 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM OTTO IS CENTERED NEAR 24.0N 67.9W OR ABOUT 245 NM NE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND MOVING NE AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS 60 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. AN INCREASE IN FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH SOME SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-24N BETWEEN 66W-68W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 64W-69W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WELL TO THE SE OF THE CENTER IMPACTING THE ERN CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-25N BETWEEN 58W-67W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 13N45W TO 4N51W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 51W-54W...AND FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN42W-51W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 11N14W 5N27W 9N41W. ITCZ REMAINS FAIRLY INACTIVE WITH ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 29W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1025 MB HIGHS OVER SE TEXAS AND NE MEXICO PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. MAINLY NE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE AREA REACHING UP TO 20 KT ACROSS THE SE SECTION DUE TO THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF AND LOWER PRESSURE TO THE E ASSOCIATED WITH T.S OTTO. CLEAR SKIES COVER THE NRN HALF OF THE BASIN WHILE A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE S OF 26N WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N. ALOFT...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS CENTERED S OF MEXICO IN THE E PACIFIC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE ERN U.S. COAST DIPS ACROSS FLORIDA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE FAIR WEATHER AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT SURFACE RIDGING TO REMAIN ACROSS THE BASIN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S OF JAMAICA TOWARDS PANAMA ALONG 16N78W TO 10N81W. SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE DROPPED ACROSS THIS AREA WARRANTING A 1007 MB LOW ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 14N79W. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW IS NOT WELL-DEFINED AT THIS POINT...BUT IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE APPARENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-18N BETWEEN 79W-82W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO FARTHER E S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 71W-74W...AND FROM 12N-20N BETWEEN 62W-68W ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. AREAS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN. FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING IN MAJOR RIVERS IN PUERTO RICO. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL OF DEADLY MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN. SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COVERS MUCH OF THE BASIN AND BEING DRAWN NWD BY OTTO. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS N OF PUERTO RICO WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN CAUSING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN ESPECIALLY THE SW AREA NEAR THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE SW N ATLC IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM JUST W OF BERMUDA TO 27N72W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE ERN U.S. COAST SUPPORTS THE FRONT AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE. FARTHER E...T.S OTTO IS NEAR 24.0N 67.9W BRINGING DISTURBED WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL ATLC AND THE NE CARIBBEAN. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. BESIDES THE CONVECTION DISCUSSION WITH OTTO IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION...SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FARTHER E OF THE SYSTEM FROM 20N-28N BETWEEN 47W-58W. SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 29N44W. TO THE N...A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE NRN BOUNDARY ALONG 32N BETWEEN 27W-40W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTRUDING INTO THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG 32N57W 23N49W SUPPORTING THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WELL E OF OTTO. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE ERN ATLC SUPPORTING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON