000 AXNT20 KNHC 270000 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN SEP 26 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA IS CENTERED NEAR 26.1N 29.4W AT 26/2100 UTC MOVING NNW AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. LISA IS NOW A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS AND COMPLETELY DEVOID ANY DEEP CONVECTION. LISA IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N13W 8N22W 9N30W...RESUMING NEAR 9N38W 8N44W 7N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO 9N BETWEEN 32W AND 45W...AND ALSO FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 23W AND 30W. A MESOSCALE COMPLEX IS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA FROM NORTHERN LIBERIA TO GUINEA-BISSAU...BRINGING MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OFFSHORE. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE REMNANT LOW CENTER OF MATHEW CONTINUES TO BRING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GULF MEXICO...ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION S OF 23N. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITH AXIS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO NORTHERN LOUISIANA HEADING SE RATHER QUICKLY...AND WILL BE ENTERING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS. WHILE THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS INLAND OVER THE SSE CONUS...A PRE FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE NE GULF THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 29N85W AND CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 27N87W... GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE FAR NE BASIN N OF 27N E OF 86W. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE INLAND OVER FLORIDA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 67W...ASSOCIATED WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND THE LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC SFC WIND FIELD FROM THE REMNANT LOW CENTER OF MATHEW. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ACROSS THIS REGION. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE EASTERN BASIN E OF 67W...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED WITH AREAS OS SCATTERED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY FLOW. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FURTHERMORE...COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN SOMEWHAT AGREEMENT SUGGESTING THAT SOME OF THE ENERGY AND INSTABILITY LEFT FROM MATHEW IN THIS REGION COULD DEVELOP INTO A RATHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS CUBA AND EVENTUALLY THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... MOST OF THE WESTERN ATLC IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AROUND A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THIS REGION FROM A 1021 MB HIGH ENE OF BERMUDA NEAR 35N60W. NEVERTHELESS...A NEARLY STATIONARY WEAK ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS SPINNING NEAR 23N70W... GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N TO 28N BETWEEN 67W AND 71W. A DISSIPATING 1014 MB LOW REMAINS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 28N54W AND CONTINUES TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 54W-56W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY BENIGN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WITH DRY STABLE AIR FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN 30W-65W. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC MOSTLY N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THERE IS A 1011 MB LOW IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED N OF THE ITCZ AXIS NEAR 12N34W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 31W AND 35W. TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WEAK DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE EAST ATLC. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA