000 AXNT20 KNHC 121152 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU AUG 12 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N19W TO 19N26W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. GLOBAL POTENTIAL VORTICITY AND MID-LEVEL MODEL FIELDS INDICATE A BROAD 600-700 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N19W WITH THE 700 MB TROUGH ALIGNED TO THE NW ALONG THE AXIS OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED EAST OF THE WAVE FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 17W-21W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N59W TO 20N54W MOVING W-NW AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW BETWEEN 53W-60W WITH AN AREA OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 53W-58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 54W-60W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N68W TO 16N72W MOVING W-NW AT 10-15 KT. EMBEDDED WITHIN LOW TO MID-LEVEL TROUGHING SOUTH OF A WESTERN ATLC RIDGE...THE WAVE IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 63W-70W... INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE MONA PASSAGE. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 08N19W 09N38W 07N49W 11N56W RESUMING OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N73W AND WESTWARD ALONG 09N INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 11N86W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 11W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE CONTINUE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 26N FOCUSED NEAR A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N90W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS MORNING DEPICTS A CYCLONIC SWIRL OF CONVECTION NEARING SE LOUISIANA AND THE NEW ORLEANS AREA. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER GEORGIA NEAR 33N84W. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS REMAINING MOSTLY E OF 90W. FARTHER WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N97W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM NORTH TEXAS TO EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 19N101W. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 26N W OF 93W. ELSEWHERE...OVER THE SW GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 22N BETWEEN 90W-97W. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 23N76W ACROSS EASTERN CUBA TO EASTERN JAMAICA NEAR 18N77W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH A WESTWARD PROPAGATING TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 70W N OF 16N IS PROVIDING MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N BETWEEN 63W-80W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS...IMPACTING MANY OF THE GREATER ANTILLES ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FOCUSED FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED SW OF A LINE FROM 15N83W TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 12N73W. CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE ITCZ AXIS ALONG 09N/10N AND AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION S OF 12N INCLUDING PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. FARTHER EAST...WITH THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58W...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... NORTHEASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ACROSS THE W ATLC W OF 63W DUE TO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION LOCATED OVER THE SE CONUS CENTERED NEAR 33N84W. THIS IS SUPPORTING A 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N67W THAT EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS WESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. LOCATED SW OF THE HIGH...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 70W S OF 21N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING MAINLY OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND SE BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE NEARBY ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS DUE TO THESE FEATURES. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 32N56W TO 20N66W TO OVER HISPANIOLA AND CUBA... PROVIDING FURTHER SUPPORT TO THE ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SW NORTH ATLC. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALSO SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 30N53W TO 22N61W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS N OF 24N. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED AS A 1015 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 47W-51W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW AS IT TRACKS TO THE N-NW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH N-NE OF THE AZORES THAT EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ALONG 32N27W TO 22N34W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN