000 AXNT20 KNHC 211119 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN FEB 21 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1000 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W ALONG 2N20W 2N30W 3N40W TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR EQ52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 25W-32W...AND FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 34W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0900 UTC...THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE FAR W GULF HAS DISSIPATED. A WARM FRONT STILL EXTENDS ACROSS THE NRN GULF ALONG 27N86W 29N90W 29N95W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF THE FRONT FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 84W-90W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 21N90W TO 25N90W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER DUE TO SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1022 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA...AND A 1020 MB HIGH OVER NE FLORIDA. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM BISECTS THE BASIN ALONG 25N WITH ZONAL WLY FLOW. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA N OF 24N...WHILE E PACIFIC MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN ACROSS THE BASIN S OF 24N SUPPORTING HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO CONTINUE LIFTING N AS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER W TEXAS MOVES OVER THE NW GULF WATERS LATER TODAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEING DRAWN OVER THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO S OF A STRONG JETSTREAM IS ALSO MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING HIGH CLOUDS. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS RUN FROM BELIZE TO WRN CUBA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS N OF HISPANIOLA CLIPPING THE WRN TIP OF HAITI. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE TROUGH. A DYING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO BRING RAIN TO THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. THE FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS ANGUILLA ALONG 17N TO S OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 17N69W. RADAR IMAGERY FROM PUERTO RICO INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE FRONT...AND 30 NM S OF THE FRONT. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO N OF PANAMA S OF 13N BETWEEN 77W-81W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS. ALOFT...ZONAL WLY FLOW IS ACROSS THE BASIN EMBEDDED WITH MODERATELY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE...BESIDES THE NW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO DISSIPATE WITH MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE NW CARIBBEAN MON NIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLC WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 33N. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AROUND A 1022 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA...AND A 1020 MB OVER NE FLORIDA SUPPORTING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE W ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NEAR THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ALONG 24N61W 21N69W TO THE NW TIP OF HAITI NEAR 19N74W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS. A COLD FRONT DRAPES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NE AND CENTRAL ATLC ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N12W ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 27N20W 24N34W BECOMING A DYING COLD FRONT TO 21N47W...AND A DYING STATIONARY FRONT TO ANGUILLA NEAR 18N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 40W...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT ELSEWHERE. WHILE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS ACROSS THE BASIN...THE ERN PORTION OF THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF THE AZORES ISLANDS NEAR 46N27W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE S OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 18N31W SUPPORTING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THIS AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SENEGAL TO NEAR 1N30W IS SUPPORTING THE SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE ITCZ. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON