000
AXNT20 KNHC 301117
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST SAT JAN 30 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 4N20W 1N40W EQ50W. 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE 
FROM 14N-3S BETWEEN 21W-34W.  

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER S ALABAMA NEAR 
31N86W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 
26N90W 18N93W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO THE W 
ATLANTIC BEYOND 31N80W. RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER 
THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 82W-89W. 
20 KT SE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. 15-20 SE 
WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE E GULF E OF THE COLD FRONT. 
20-25 KT NW WINDS ARE OVER THE NW GULF W OF THE COLD FRONT. A 
GALE IS OVER THE SW GULF S OF 22N W OF FRONT. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS PREVAIL WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN 
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO 
EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 24 HOURS WITH 
CONVECTION. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 
10N76W. A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING STRONG TRADEWINDS 
OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALONG THE 
COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN 
E OF 70W DUE TO AN ALREADY-DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS NOTED. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS 
PREVENTING DEEP CONVECTION FROM FORMING IN THE AREA. EXPECT... 
CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...NW CARIBBEAN...AND W 
CUBA WITHIN 24 HOURS DUE TO THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT. ALSO 
EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.  

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N60W. A 
994 MB GALE LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N31W. A 
COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 32N28W 28N28W 25N33W 
26N39W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A 
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS FURTHER E ALONG 32N21W 25N24W 22N31W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THIS FRONT. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N 
AND W OF 50W. A UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N31W. UPPER 
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 20W-50W. ZONAL FLOW 
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT... A COLD FRONT THE 
BE ALONG THE N FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST IN 24 HOURS WITH 
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION 
BEHIND THIS FRONT. ALSO EXPECT THE LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEMS OVER 
THE E ATLANTIC TO DRIFT E WITH SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS.       

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

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FORMOSA