000 AXNT20 KNHC 280545 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON DEC 28 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 3N30W EQ50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 49W-52W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N88W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N90W. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS DOTS THE GULF OF MEXICO ESPECIALLY S OF 28N. ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF FROM 24N98W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N95W. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE S OF 26N AND W OF 95W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 98W IS PRODUCING SW FLOW OVER THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER TEXAS AND THE NW GULF N OF 27N AND W OF 88W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. 70-90 KT 25O MB WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE N GULF N OF 22N. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS... FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE TO S FLORIDA AND DISSIPATE. ALSO EXPECT 20 KT NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF WITH SHOWERS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N85W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 84W-86W. FURTHER E... A BAND OF SHOWERS IS W OF JAMAICA FROM 12N-20N BETWEEN 78W-82W. FURTHER S... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...AND COST RICA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO N OF 17N BETWEEN 60W-68W. MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA WHERE STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 75W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA EXCEPT OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA WHERE BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOTED. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND PANAMA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS FROM 30N71W TO 24N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 71W-74W...AND FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 67W-71W. ELSEWHERE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLANTIC TO E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 32N21W 21N40W 19N50W 18N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE OF THE FRONT. A VERY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE E ATLANTIC W OF THE COLD FRONT IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 28N BETWEEN 30W-38W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 55W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FURTHER E OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 40W-55W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 19N16W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS N FROM THIS CENTER TO BEYOND THE CANARY ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE E...AND FOR THE COLD FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY WITH MORE SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. $$ FORMOSA