000
AXNT20 KNHC 141754
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 PM EST MON DEC 14 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1745 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 6N22W 6N33W AND 1N49W. AN 
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 10W AND 17W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL FOG ALONG THE TEXAS 
COAST AND WESTERN LOUISIANA COAST. FOG IS EXPECTED TI DISSIPATE 
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE TEXAS 
COAST...FROM NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA 
COAST. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH 
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED ENTERING THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA 
COAST AND MOVING INTO NEW ORLEANS. LIGHTER SHOWERS ARE MOVING NE 
INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS IS FOUND 50 
NM SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES FLORIDA. A SURFACE WEAK TROUGH IS 
ANALYZED FROM 26N93W TO 22N94W. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DRAWING 
MOISTURE SUPPORTING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR THE WARM FRONT. 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE EAST AND CENTRAL GULF IS 
TRANSFERRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE SE AND CENTRAL BASIN...WITH 
SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SSE 5-10 KTS IS ACROSS THE BASIN. EXPECT 
THE FRONT TO BECOME DIFFUSE WHILE IT CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN DUE TO 
A RELATIVITY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THIS REGION. GALE FORCE 
WINDS ARE NOTED OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE BASIN DUE TO BROAD UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER GREATER ANTILLES. DESPITE 
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE BASIN...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS PORTIONS 
OF THE BASIN INCLUDING SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND N 
OF HONDURAS. EXPECT THE GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 3026 
24N30W 21N41W...BECOMING STATIONARY FROM 20N48W TO 19N54W. WINDS 
BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE CREATED DEVELOPING GALE WINDS CRITERIA. A 
SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CREATING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS 
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF 30N 
BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE W ATLC...A 1025 HIGH 
PRESSURE NEAR 31N57W IS DOMINATING THE SOUTH WESTERN AND CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC...BRINGING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. THIS 
SURFACE HIGH IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT 
WILL ENTER THE DISCUSSION AREA IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT 
TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND ESE...LEAVING GALE FORCE BEHIND IT.   

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$

GARCIA