000 AXNT20 KNHC 102314 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST THU DEC 10 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC. THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 4N23W 4N40W 3N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 20W-25W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 27W-30W...AND FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 38W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT BISECTS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE TO FORT MYERS INTO THE GULF WATERS ALONG 25N86W 24N91W BECOMING STATIONARY TO A 1010 MB LOW IN THE SW GULF NEAR 21N94W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S OF THE LOW INTO MEXICO TO NEAR 18N92W. OVER FLORIDA...A LARGE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE IS SEEN ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S OVER N FLORIDA...AND 80S OVER S FLORIDA WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED IN PORTIONS OF S FLORIDA. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE COLD FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. NE SURFACE WINDS UP TO 20 KT IN THE E GULF...25 KT IN THE NW GULF...ARE BEHIND THE FRONT. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY MOIST WLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE ERN CONUS...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CONTINUING PUSHING SE ACROSS S FLORIDA TONIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SW GULF MOVES TOWARDS THE NW GULF COAST. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BRINGING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA S OF 13N W OF 79W. THIS AREA OF ACTIVITY IS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS OVER THE E/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO NRN COLOMBIA. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE NRN CARIBBEAN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. EXPECT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO REACH THE NW CARIBBEAN TOMORROW BRINGING A HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THAT AREA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N71W CONTINUING ALONG 29N77W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR FORT PIERCE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM BEHIND...AND 30 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO FARTHER S OF THE BOUNDARY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF S FLORIDA AND THE NW BAHAMAS. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 29N51W BRINGING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER TO THE AREA. FARTHER E...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA BETWEEN THE AZORES AND CANARY ISLANDS EXTENDING ALONG 32N25W 26N33W 23N44W. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS N OF 30N. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90NM OF THE FRONT AXIS S OF 30N. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...THEN W ALONG 20N TO NEAR 50W. $$ WALTON