000
AXNT20 KNHC 230605
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

9N13W 5N30W 5N39W 6N49W...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN FRENCH 
GUIANA...NORTHERN SURINAME...AND BEYOND CENTRAL GUYANA AND 
5N60W. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 2N TO 8N...MOSTLY BETWEEN
10W AND 53W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 14N51W 4N50W. THE SOUTHERN
END OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 23N41W TO
19N39W TO 14N36W. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER THE 
AREA FROM 15N TO 23N BETWEEN 35W AND 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW 
COVERS THE AREA. A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE FAR 
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. AN OCCLUDED FRONT GOES FROM THE LOW 
CENTER TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THEN IT 
CURVES TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE WARM 
FRONT THAT WAS GOING FROM THE TRIPLE POINT IN THE FLORIDA BIG 
BEND EASTWARD ACROSS THE BORDER OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND 
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA HAS BECOME STATIONARY ALSO DURING THE LAST 
SIX HOURS. MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE RACING ACROSS 
THE AREA TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN 
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FROM 21N TO 22N WITHIN 30 NM 
ON EITHER SIDE OF 95W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN GUATEMALA 
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 23N86W IN THE 
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE 
BETWEEN 85W AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA 
FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS NORTHWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW COVERS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THANKS TO A MIDDLE 
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE WAY TO THE NORTH OF 
THE AREA. A SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS OVER INTERIOR 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA IS SENDING UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 14N.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 56W AND THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES
FROM 31N51W TO 26N48W TO 23N41W TO 19N39W TO 14N36W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N TO 
31N BETWEEN 44W AND 50W...AND FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 55W AND 
57W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 
31N22W TO 26N23W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 29N TO 31N 
BETWEEN 20W AND 22W. 

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MT