000
AXNT20 KNHC 190551
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST THU NOV 19 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

7N11W 8N21W 7N41W 8N54W 9N61W IN NORTHEASTERN COASTAL VENEZUELA.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 21W 
AND 23W...AND FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 27W AND 30W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE REST OF THE AREA FROM 4N TO 10N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30W/31W
FROM 3N TO 11N. SURFACE TROUGHS HAVE BEEN ANALYZED DURING THE 
LAST FEW DAYS IN THE AREA FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 48W AND 60W.
IT IS NOT EASY TO PINPOINT EXACT LOCATIONS OF THESE TROUGHS
AT THIS TIME. QUIKSCAT AND ASCAT HIGH RESOLUTION DATA JUST HAVE 
MISSED THIS AREA AND THEY HAVE PROVEN TO BE INCONCLUSIVE.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN
48W AND 50W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND 
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 10N TO 17N
BETWEEN 52W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD LARGE-SCALE DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 26N...THANKS TO A MISSOURI/ILLINOIS 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAT IS
ON TOP OF A 1014 LOW PRESSURE CENTER. A COLD FRONT THAT IS 
SUPPORTED BY THE CYCLONIC CENTER PASSES THROUGH NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA TO THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NEAR 27N...TO JUST OFF THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N89W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 
22N89W AND CURVES TO THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE
STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AS A WARM FRONT.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF 
OF MEXICO AWAY FROM THE CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE NORTH OF 26N. NO 
DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF IDA FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS 
DISSIPATED. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH OF THE NOW-DISSIPATED IDA
COVERS THE AREA FROM A 27N60W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 
21N62W AND 15N61W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA TO THE WEST
OF THE TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 16N TO 20N
BETWEEN 64W AND 68W. SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 40 NM TO THE EAST OF 
DOMINICA...AND BETWEEN 60W AND GUADELOUPE. OTHER SHOWERS ARE 
FROM 19N TO 20N BETWEEN 59W AND 60W...AND ULTIMATELY TO THE 
NORTH OF 20N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. HE MONA PASSAGE. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
A SEPARATE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE
SOUTH OF 14N...CURVING NORTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
SOUTH AMERICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 27N60W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO 21N62W TO 15N61W IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF IDA HAS 
DISSIPATED. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N61W 25N65W 22N68W.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N56W
25N58W 20N61W. THE SOUTHERN END OF A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 31N46W 
TO 31N60W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN
39W AND 60W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES 
THROUGH 34N9W TO SOUTHERN MOROCCO TO THE SOUTHERN WESTERN 
SAHARA...TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 12N40W. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH.

$$
MT