000
AXNT20 KNHC 142355
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 8N13W AT THE AFRICA COAST TO 6N20W TO 7N28W 5N37W 8N44W...
ACROSS NORTHERN GUYANA AND NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA TO 8N60W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 16W AND 27W.
ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 10N30W 5N29W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 3N27W 6N29W 10N30W.
A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 13N39W 10N42W 7N44W. 
PRECIPITATION FROM ONE CELL COVERS THE AREA FROM 13N TO 14N
BETWEEN 40W AND 41W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN
44W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA. AN UPPER 
LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N96W TO A CYCLONIC CENTER 
THAT IS NEAR 19N96W TO TO 15N101W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN 
COASTAL WATERS OF MEXICO. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE 
AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BASE OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM THE 
CYCLONIC CENTER AROUND THE REMNANT OF IDA REACHES HAITI...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE IN SOUTHWESTERN HAITI...AROUND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
AND IN THE WATERS FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 64W AND 67W. UPPER 
LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE SPILLS INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO
THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 70W. THIS SAME NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW EVENTUALLY CONTINUES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST 
OF 70W...TOWARD NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM JAMAICA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA
TO 11N82W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO 
THE WEST OF 77W...ALSO NEAR THE ITCZ. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N70W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO 26N69W TO THE MONA PASSAGE.
A 1002 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33N71W. THIS LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG 29N61W 24N64W.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES ALONG 32N65W 26N67W TO EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N75W. A SECOND TROUGH IS ALONG 31N69W
27N71W 24N74W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N TO 26N
BETWEEN 59W AND 63W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE
TO THE NORTH OF 21N BETWEEN 54W AND 70W. ONE COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N35W TO 28N45W
TO 31N57W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON 
EITHER SIDE OF 28N35W 31N32W. A SECOND COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 
32N23W TO 28N30W TO 27N36W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS 
ALONG 21N42W TO 17N45W TO 8N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 
11N TO 14N BETWEEN 52W AND 56W. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER 
THAT IS NEAR 21N15W IN MAURITANIA JUST TO THE SOUTH OF WESTERN 
SAHARA TO 13N24W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. 

$$
MT