000 AXNT20 KNHC 311740 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 12 KT. THIS WAVE IS ON A SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER MAXIMUM. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 40W-47W. AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF AN ALREADY-EXISTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. IT APPEARS THAT THE NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO THE TROUGH MORE THAN WITH THE WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 60W-65W. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA. THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS TO THE EAST OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS PROBABLY IS RELATED TO THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 76W-83W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 8N20W 7N40W 8N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 14W-17W... FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 18W-22W...AND FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 26W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 55W-58W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N MEXICO NEAR 27N101W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N86W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 24N90W 17N95W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 92W-95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. 30-35 KT GALE FORCE N WINDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN S OF 23N W OF THE FRONT. SE 10-15 KT WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE E GULF E OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER TEXAS...N MEXICO...AND THE W GULF W OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF. EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE E AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 86W-89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 68W-72W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA NEAR 16N89W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. EXPECT... MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1002 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N46W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS W FROM THE LOW TO S FLORIDA ALONG 23N50W 22N60W 20N70W 24N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 46W-50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF PORTUGAL NEAR 37N12W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 24N36W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N52W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 30W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICS S OF 20N. $$ FORMOSA