000 AXNT20 KNHC 241808 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/39W TO THE SOUTH OF 24N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A FEW CLUSTERS ARE FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 33W AND 39W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 35W AND 38W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 18N47W 15N48W...TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 13N48W...TO 10N49W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER THE AREA FROM 12N TO 19N BETWEEN 40W AND 49W. ...THE ITCZ... FROM AFRICA NEAR 10N14W TO 4N30W INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2N51W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8N24W 8N30W 9N40W TO 10N. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 14W AND 20W...AND FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 39W AND 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 44W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN DRIVING THE CURRENT GULF COLD FRONT IS STARTING TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TO SOME DEGREE. THE PART THAT IS LIFTING OUT OF THE AREA IS WELL OVER THE EASTERN U.S.A. THIS FRONT IS COMPARATIVELY SLOW IN MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND NOW EXTENDS FROM NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF WATERS TO JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N90W...TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 22N TO BETWEEN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MAINLAND MEXICO. FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 70W INCLUDING IN THE BAHAMAS INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD AND WELL-DEFINED DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 70W...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO THE COASTAL PANAMA ALONG 82W. THE CYCLONIC FLOW IS RELATED TO WESTWARD-MOVING TROUGH THAT STRETCHES ROUGHLY FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO A SPOT THAT IS ABOUT 100 NM TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL NICARAGUA COAST. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO COASTAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 80W DUE WEST OF JAMAICA TO A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTUALLY ARE TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 74W. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE REMAINS TO THE EAST OF 68W. SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE SAME AREA...TO THE EAST OF 68W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN... ALONG 32N29W 28N34W 26N46W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N28W 27N36W 24N47W 23N58W. $$ MT