000
AXNT20 KNHC 111800
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W SOUTH OF 16N 
DRIFTING WESTWARD. LOW-LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS SHOW 
CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 17N. A MAXIMUM IN 
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ALSO OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER 
IMAGERY BETWEEN 34W-42W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 8N-12N 
BETWEEN 36W-40W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W S 18N MOVING W 15 
KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE 
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR THE WAVE 
AXIS. A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ALSO NOTED ON TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BETWEEN 73W-80W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-13N 
BETWEEN 77W-80W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 8N20W 14N39W 7N58W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA 
FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 11W-13W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM 
OF THE WAVE AXIS W OF 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 
30N81W TO 29N87W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE ALONG 27N93W 24N95W 19N96W 22N99W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 90W-95W...AND FROM 18N-26N 
BETWEEN 94W-97W. 20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT. 
FAIR WEATHER AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER 
OF THE GULF WITH 10-15 KT SW FLOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN 
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W GULF NEAR 24N93W.  
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. 
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF AND FLORIDA HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE. 
EXPECT...THE FRONT TO RETROGRADE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION W OF 90W. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. FRESH TO 
STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W CUBA W OF 81W. A FEW SHOWERS 
ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. EASTERLY UPPER 
LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT... 
MORE CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS 
THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1017 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N79W. A 1020 MB HIGH 
IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N66W. THE REMNANTS OF HENRI IS NOW 
A SURFACE TROUGH N OF HISPANIOLA ALONG 23N71W 18N73W. A COLD 
FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 31N31W 29N32W 23N40W 
18N50W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W 
ATLANTIC NEAR 26N65W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 
33N34W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 13N50W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICS 
NEAR 10N20W.   

$$
FORMOSA