000 AXNT20 KNHC 101046 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W TO THE SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A PRE-EXISTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 32N27W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 24N29W TO 17N32W TO 8N37W BECOMING INDISTINCT. THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN IS BECOMING DRAWN OUT AND ELONGATED AND STRETCHED ALONG A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST LINE. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W...AND FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 34W AND 40W IN THE ITCZ. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W/69W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND NEARBY WATERS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 67W AND 69W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 65W AND 68W. UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE GRADUALLY HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA TO THE EAST OF 70W TO THE NORTH OF 14N. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W/88W TO THE SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE COVERS THE AREAS FROM WESTERN HONDURAS BEYOND EASTERN EL SALVADOR INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. MUCH OF THIS SAME AREA IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...AND THUS DEEP AND STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION NOW IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. DISORGANIZED AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WATERS TO THE WEST OF 10N77W 17N83W... CAUGHT UP ALSO IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW. ...THE ITCZ... FROM 10N14W TO 9N25W TO 11N36W INTO SURINAME NEAR 5N55W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 11W AND 16W...FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 33W...AND FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 33W AND 55W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A CENTRAL U.S.A. DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS DRIVING THE CURRENT COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WATERS TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 21N98W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N97W 21N97W 24N96W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE RETURN SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT...MOSTLY BETWEEN 86W AND THE COLD FRONT. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVER THE REST OF THE AREA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE IS SMOTHERING THE AREA TO THE WEST OF 70W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE. ALL OF THE DEEP LAYER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OFFSHORE INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. OTHER PRECIPITATION IS BEING SHEARED BY THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER IS NEAR 14N95W...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO.. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE REMNANT OF HENRI IS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 23N60W 23N65W TO A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 21N67W TO 19N67W. ALL THE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAS DISSIPATED. ALL MOISTURE THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN PUSHED WELL AWAY TO THE NORTHWEST BY THE DRY AIR/ SUBSIDENCE THAT HAS INVADED THE IMMEDIATE AREA. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 46W. THE FLOW TO THE EAST OF 45W FEEDS INTO THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 33N41W TO 26N40W TO 22N41W...WITH THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N39W TO 26N43W TO 22N54W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N38W 27N38W 23N46W 21N53W. $$ MT