000 AXNT20 KNHC 070517 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED OCT 07 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM HENRI IS CENTERED NEAR 18.4N 55.3W AT 07/0300 UTC...OR ABOUT 445 NM E OF THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS. HENRI IS MOVING WNW NEAR 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS HAVE INCREASED TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH WEAKENING FORECAST TO BEGIN LATER TODAY. PLEASE READ THE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/ WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 52W-55W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 50W-55W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W S OF 10N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A 0042 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATES LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE AXIS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 43W-48W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A LOW-AMPLITUDE...BUT BROAD...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER VENEZUELA FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 62W-68W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 59W-68W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE MAIN PORTION OF THE WAVE LIES IN THE E PACIFIC BASIN. HOWEVER...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA AND MEXICO FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 88W-93W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N13W 5N26W 8N41W 5N53W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 12W-16W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 21W-24W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE AXIS BETWEEN 24W-29W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER THROUGHOUT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 23N101W ALONG WITH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA SUPPORTING THE FAIR WEATHER. A STATIONARY FRONT CLIPS THE NRN BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM 30N81W TO 31N88W. NO SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. A FEW REMAINING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS S FLORIDA S OF 27N E OF 82W DUE TO CONVERGENT SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE PENINSULA. ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE WITH WINDS UP TO 20 KT IN THE WRN GULF. EXPECT THE RIDGE TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 15N81W. THE UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SW BASIN S OF 18N W OF 75W. UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SW ATLC IS SUPPORTING A FEW PATCHES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N BETWEEN 74W-81W. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 64W IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 15N E OF 68W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE WAVE AXIS PREVENTING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE N PORTION OF THE WAVE. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH STRONGER WINDS IN THE SW AND ERN CARIBBEAN. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 64W TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WWD. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... TROPICAL STORM HENRI REMAINS THE BIGGEST WEATHER MAKER OVER THE ATLC. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A STATIONARY FRONT CLIPS THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN FROM 31N77W TO THE N FLORIDA COAST NEAR 30N81W CONTINUING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. NO SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE WRN ATLC W OF 70W EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 26N BETWEEN 35W-65W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A SWATH OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 25N65W TO 31N52W IS SUPPORTED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE TO THE SE OF THE TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY SEVERAL SURFACE HIGHS. A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 27N66W TO THE NW OF T.S. HENRI...AND A PAIR OF 1022 MB HIGHS ARE CENTERED NEAR 25N40W AND 31N37W TO THE NE OF HENRI. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A COLD FRONT N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 31N19W TO 28N33W. NO SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE BASIN S OF 26N E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES CENTERED NEAR 13N33W. $$ WALTON