000 AXNT20 KNHC 290555 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND...GOES-12 SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC AND METEOSAT-8 IMAGERY THROUGH 0530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W TO THE SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. IT IS NOT EASY TO FIND PRECIPITATION THAT JUST ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN WESTERN HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR MAY BE OR MAY NOT BE RELATED TO THIS WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... FROM 11N15W 7N22W TO 10N39W 8N50W 9N56W INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 8N61W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 36W AND 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 8N WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 13W...FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 22W AND 24W... AND WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N43W 8N50W 12N56W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE U.S.A. AND THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 90W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES ON TOP OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W...ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N85W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 22N TO 28N. A SECOND COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND 48 HOURS...AND TO BECOME STATIONARY IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 72 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE SOUTHERN END OF THE DEEP LAYER ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES ON TOP OF THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 13N77W AND 13N84W IN NORTHEASTERN COASTAL NICARAGUA. THE TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS NICARAGUA TO HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA...TO THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS MOVING ACROSS COASTAL MEXICO THAT IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN EL SALVADOR AND IN WESTERN HONDURAS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W TO THE SOUTH OF 16N...MOVING THROUGH THE SAME AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS SPREADING BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROUGH...TO THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE U.S.A... THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 70W AND 90W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W... ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N85W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 28N TO 29N BETWEEN 70W AND 73W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE BAHAMAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W. A DEEP LAYER CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N30W TO 28N44W TO A 29N54W CYCLONIC CENTER...TO 30N60W 27N63W...ACROSS THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N33W TO 29N44W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 40W AND 67W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 22N37W TO 10N45W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 38W AND 40W...AND FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W. UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO THE EAST OF THIS TROUGH IS SHEARING THE FEW NEARBY CLOUD TOPS. A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS THE REMNANT OF T.D. EIGHT IS ALONG 45W/46W FROM 15N TO 21N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 46W AND 48W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N11W...SKIRTING THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE WESTERN SAHARA...TO 19N20W. NO SURFACE FRONT OR TROUGH IS ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH. $$ MT