000 AXNT20 KNHC 281741 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W TO THE SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST AT 20 KT. INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. ALSO SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER MAXIMUM IS NOTED. SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE AREA N OF 13N AND E OF 40W SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS HOWEVER FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 30W-39W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 84W/85W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 78W-83W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N14W 7N20W 11N30W 14N40W 8N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 15W-19W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 11N13N BETWEEN 55W-60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1017 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N87W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA ALONG 28N80W 27N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF THE FRONT OVER S FLORIDA FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 80W-83W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 28W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER W CUBA NEAR 21N83W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT RETURN FLOW CONVECTION OVER THE NW GULF AND TEXAS...WITH FAIR WEATHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. SEE ABOVE. FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 72W-80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 15N. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 20N67W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN N OF THE LINE 20N70W 13N84W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF THE LINE HAS CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT...CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE S CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N72W 28N81W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG 29N74W 26N79W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE TROUGH TO INCLUDE THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N52W. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N35W 29N40W 28N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 32W-36W. A SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF T.D. EIGHT IS OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 24N43W 17N43W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WELL E OF THE AXIS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N62W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 59W-61W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED FURTHER E NEAR 28N53W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 47W-57W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND E OF 30W. TWO UPPER LEVEL HIGHS ARE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 12N56W AND 13N23W. $$ FORMOSA