000 AXNT20 KNHC 220612 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL AT 22/0600 UTC IS NEAR 32.2N 68.2W OR ABOUT 205 MILES/330 KM TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 475 MILES/765 KM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. BILL IS MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST 17 KT. THE CORE OF HURRICANE BILL IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE OPEN WATERS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY. BILL IS EXPECTED TO PASS OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE SATURDAY AND APPROACH NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 957 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. BILL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT OR SATURDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES/140 KM FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES/445 KM. A WEATHER STATION AT COMMISSIONERS POINT ON BERMUDA...AT AN ELEVATION OF 250 FEET...RECENTLY REPORTED A 10-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 61 MPH/98 KM/HR...WITH A GUST OF 97 MPH/156 KM/HR. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AFOS/WMO HEADERS TCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER TCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SOME OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM HURRICANE BILL COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 27N TO 36N BETWEEN 62W AND 72W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW REACHES PUERTO RICO TO THE SOUTH AND 38N TO THE NORTH...BETWEEN 51W AND 78W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 65W AND 68W. OTHER SHOWERS ARE FROM 33N TO 35N BETWEEN 65W AND 68W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W/21W TO THE SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 20W AND 23W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N34W. THIS LOW CENTER IS ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 34W TO THE SOUTH OF 15N. THE WAVE IS MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 33W AND 36W. SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 35W AND 37W. ...THE ITCZ... ROUGHLY ALONG 11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N40W 10N50W... CURVING TO 12N54W...AND FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN AFRICA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA NEAR VENEZUELA AND TRINIDAD. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 90W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 22N TO THE EAST OF 94W...PART OF THE SAME AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD... FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS INLAND AWAY FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE COAST TO 30N BETWEEN THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER AND 98W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 92W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST OF 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN HONDURAS AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL GUATEMALA...AND IN MEXICO BETWEEN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND 90W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF CUBA ON THE CARIBBEAN SEA SIDE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. BROAD AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE COAST TO 12N BETWEEN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA AND 64W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 31N50W. A TROUGH RUNS FROM THIS CYCLONIC CENTER TO 25N50W. POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 50W BETWEEN 48W AND 50W. $$ MT