000 AXNT20 KNHC 180544 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE AUG 18 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL AT 18/0300 UTC IS NEAR 15.0N 48.3W...OR ABOUT 975 MILES...1570 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS REMAIN AT 85 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 105 KT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 130 MILES. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. PLEASE READ THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS TCMAT3/ WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 46W-51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY NW OF THE SYSTEM FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN 68W-75W...AFFECTING MUCH OF HISPANIOLA...ERN CUBA...AND THE SE BAHAMAS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THE WAVE LIES ON A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH A DRY SLOT W OF THE WAVE AXIS AT 12N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 27W-32W. A TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF ANA...IS ALONG 70W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS THREATEN HISPANIOLA AND CUBA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF HISPANIOLA FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 70W-73W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 70W-72W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 10N25W 11N30W 10N35W 13N45W 9N50W 9N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 14W-18W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 25W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE REMNANTS OF T.D. CLAUDETTE ARE CURRENTLY INLAND OVER MISSISSIPPI NEAR 33N89W. A GOOD AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE STILL REMAINS HOWEVER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO N OF 25N. FURTHER S...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 85W-87W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S MEXICO FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 94W-96W. SURFACE WINDS ARE PREDOMINATELY FROM THE E TO SE AT 10-15 KT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 28N88W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 20N100W. A GOOD AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BLANKETS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS TO MOVE OVER FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF SW CUBA FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 81W-83W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N79W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. EXPECT...CONVECTION TO MOVE OVER CUBA...THE THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE N BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 31N72W 27N78W 24N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF HISPANIOLA ALONG 26N66W 23N70W 20N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THIS TROUGH. A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR BERMUDA AT 33N67W. ANOTHER 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N30W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER CUBA IS PRODUCING DIFFLUENCE OVER THE S BAHAMAS...ENHANCING SHOWERS FROM 20N-28N BETWEEN 70W-75W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 20N60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-60W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N35W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. EXPECT BILL TO BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE OVER THE ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. $$ FORMOSA