000 AXNT20 KNHC 040551 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE AUG 04 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W TO THE SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30W/31W FROM 7N TO 11N. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 33W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N45W 8N42W MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 15 KT. ONLY ITCZ PRECIPITATION IS ANYWHERE NEAR THIS WAVE. WHAT USED TO BE THE NORTHERN PART OF THIS WAVE NOW IS A TROUGH ALONG 17N46W 21N48W 24N49W. WHAT IS THE TROUGH HAS SEPARATED FROM THE PART THAT STILL IS BEING CONSIDERED TO BE A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 16N45W 8N42W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH. A TROPICAL WAVE GOES FROM 17N60W TO 9N59W...DRIFTING WESTWARD. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... IMMEDIATELY TO THE WEST OF THIS WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... MORE OR LESS ALONG 10N/11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THROUGH 30N80W TO 26N90W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 24N. DISSIPATING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS/ PLAINS OF FLORIDA FROM 25N TO 28N. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE 30N80W 26N90W 24N/MEXICO COAST LINE IN THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW RELATED TO THE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N62W TO 16N65W TOWARD THE GOLFO DE VENEZUELA ALONG THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN COAST OF VENEZUELA. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING NORTHWARD AND COVERING THE AREA TO THE EAST OF 63W...INCLUDING PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ISLANDS. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND 73W IN HAITI...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM 28N64W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 17N71W JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 70W/71W FROM 18N IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 23N. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO INTERIOR MEXICO NEAR 18N99W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND TO THE BORDER OF EASTERN HONDURAS/NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 90W AND 100W... INCLUDING FROM THE WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 28N64W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 24N66W INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N71W JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND WESTERN HAITI ALONG 73W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE SPACE BETWEEN THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO AND MOROCCO...TO THE COAST OF THE WESTERN SAHARA NEAR 24N TO 18N22W...ABOUT 120 NM TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. NO PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH. $$ MT