000 AXNT20 KNHC 301740 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W S OF 25N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE A BROAD LOW TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS WAVE ALSO EXHIBITS A HIGH AMPLITUDE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST IS NE OF THE WAVE...AND ALSO W OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND SE CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 60W-64W...AND FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 66W-69W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 94W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS WAVE LIES IN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SRN MEXICO BECOMING MORE BROAD IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE OVER THE E PACIFIC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N15W 12N35W 10N40W 11N64W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 14W-18W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 24W-27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 30N. 10-15 KT S WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S FLORIDA FROM 26N-27N. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE SE LOUISIANA FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 89W-91W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N MEXICO AT 27N106W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 29N84W. A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS TEXAS...THE N GULF N OF 28N...AND FLORIDA. EXPECT...MORE CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLUMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 78W-84W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN DUE TO A TROPICAL WAVE. SEE ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY DRY AIR AND IS VOID OF CONVECTION. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER W CUBA NEAR 21N81W. UPPER LEVEL E FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT...MORE CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...AND OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE N BAHAMAS AND W ATLANTIC FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 77W-80W. A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N57W PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W TO N FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N56W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NE OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 31N12W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 17N40W. EXPECT...TROPICAL CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ...AND WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF FLORIDA. $$ FORMOSA