000 AXNT20 KNHC 261729 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 14N36W TO 2N37W MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SURROUNDING THE WAVE AS INDICATED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED SURFACE WINDS. HOWEVER...CURRENTLY NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS FROM 7N-20N ALONG 66W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MOISTURE MAXIMUM BASED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WHILE NO CONVECTION OVER WATER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER VENEZUELA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 66W-69W. AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS FROM 8N-21N ALONG 82W/83W MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP MOISTURE MAXIMUM BASED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THIS WAVE ALSO IS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AS INDICATED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE HAS TAPERED OFF SOME OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS ANOTHER CLUSTER HAS BUILT FARTHER S OF IT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 81W-83W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 81W-83W AND FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 76W-82W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF CUBA. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 8N24W 6N35W 6N46W AND INTO NE S AMERICA NEAR 4N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 24W-27W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 27W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE LOW OVER SE LOUISIANA NEAR 31N91W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 92W-95W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER OKLAHOMA...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N89W...AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ACROSS THE UNITED STATES ERN COAST TO OVER THE FL PENINSULA IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E GULF S OF 26N E OF 84W INCLUDING THE FL PENINSULA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN MAY ALSO BE ENHANCING THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. EXPECT THE WAVE TO MOVE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SAT AND SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N89W AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS FROM 13N-22N ALONG 79W IS SUPPORTING THE ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN...SEE ABOVE. TO THE E OF THIS WAVE...NLY FLOW ALOFT IS DRAWING IN MODERATELY DRY AIR SUPPRESSING ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN. ELY SURFACE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 65W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 27N69W TO 32N62W CONTINUING N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 30N W OF 75W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 62W-65W. E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 33N49W IS BRINGING FAIR WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL ATLC EXCEPT FOR A LINE OF HIGH CLOUDS EXTENDING ALONG 10N46W 16N48W TO 23N42W. THESE HIGH CLOUDS EXIST DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN A AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 20N52W AND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH NEAR 14N32W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLC SUPPORTS A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH E OF THE SURFACE HIGH EXTENDING FROM 25N42W TO 31N32W REACHING A COLD FRONT WHICH BRUSHES THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N BETWEEN 30W-36W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH N OF 34N. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 24N. $$ WALTON