000
AXNT20 KNHC 141030
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES WEST ALONG 67W/68W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 
KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS VIEWED 
ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER IT IS ONLY ABLE TO 
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE S OF 
14N. 

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 6N20W 3N31W 2N41W THROUGH A 
WEAK 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N48W TO 
2N52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE N OF 2N 
TO THE COAST OF SW AFRICA E OF 5N ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 
1N-5N BETWEEN 42W-51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE 
FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 11W-20W AND WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS 
FROM 20W-42W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
GULF REMAINS TRANQUIL THIS MORNING AS A 1018 MB HIGH REMAINS IN THE 
E GULF NEAR 28N86W KEEPING WINDS LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH 
THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FLORIDA BAY AND THE FLORIDA 
KEYS. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN/YUCATAN PENINSULA CROSSING 
OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE SE GULF. HOWEVER...THE BROAD UPPER 
RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER W/CENTRAL MEXICO DOMINATING THE 
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF 
THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CUT OFF UPPER LOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM W CUBA TO 
GUATEMALA INCLUDING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/CHANNEL ROUGHLY CENTERED 
NEAR 18N87W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 21N86W 
TO INLAND OVER HONDURAS/NICARAGUA TO NEAR 14N85W. A BROAD UPPER 
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN DRAWING 
UPPER LEVEL MOSITURE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND PROVIDING 
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS W OF A LINE FROM THE GULF OF VENEZUELA TO SW HAITI AND 
E OF A LINE FROM GUATEMALA IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO CENTRAL CUBA 
NEAR 22N80W INCLUDING JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE SURFACE 
TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING WHILE ANOTHER 
SURFACE TROUGH IS DEVELOPING ALONG A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT 
EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N73W TO JAMAICA.   

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N79W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA 
NEAR MELBOURNE TO FORT MYERS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ 
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 28N78.5W. THE UPPER TROUGH 
THAT HAS COVERED THE W ATLC FOR SEVERAL DAYS IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT 
EASTWARD NOW CENTERED NEAR 30N67W. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE 
CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND NARROW OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 
W/CENTRAL ATLC FROM PUERTO RICO TO 32N60W BUT STILL PROVIDING 
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF 65W BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND BERMUDA 
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA E OF 
78W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE REMAINDER OF 
THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION AND A 1023 
MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N54W. A WEAK REMNANT 1022 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED 
WITHIN THE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 31N45W. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS 
UNDER FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING. 

$$
WALLACE