000 AXNT20 KNHC 111032 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 11N49W TO 2N53W MOVING W 15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEP MOISTURE MAXIMUM IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150/180 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF 6N. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 86W/87W S OF 19N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS BENEATH AN UPPER TROUGH AND DRY STABLE AIR THAT COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN...THUS NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IN THIS BASIN. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N11W 7N20W 3N40W 4N51W THEN ACROSS SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 10W-14W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF LIBERIA/SIERRA LEONE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 3N TO THE COAST OF SW AFRICA E OF 5W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN...FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 14W-19W...AND FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 26W-28W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 30W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE GULF REMAINS MOSTLY TRANQUIL THIS MORNING AS DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE AREA. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS S OF THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE COAST OF NW CUBA. A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR 28N88W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER CENTRAL MEXICO COVERING MOST OF THE GULF WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF E OF 85W. EXPECT THE FAIR WEATHER TO CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE GULF DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN...SEE ABOVE. THE SURFACE LOW IN THE SW CARIBBEAN IS NOW A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 17N74W TO OFF THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA COAST NEAR 9N77W. HOWEVER...THE ACTIVITY IN THE CARIBBEAN IS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. AN UPPER LOW IS ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TO HONDURAS. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 71W-78W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N ACROSS HAITI AND FAR E CUBA BETWEEN 71W-76W AND S OF 12N BETWEEN 76W-82W. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL EXIT THE CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY WHILE A SECOND WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN ON SAT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM 30N71W TO 23N74W BEING SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE FAR W ATLC TO AN UPPER LOW SITUATED ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA GENERATING A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST BETWEEN 76W-78W. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 NM OF A LINE FROM HISPANIOLA NEAR THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO JUST S OF BERMUDA. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 33N23W TO A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 29N34W GIVING MOST THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ALONG 15N FROM AFRICA TO 43W. $$ WALLACE