000
AXNT20 KNHC 091028
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUN 09 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W TO THE SOUTH
OF 11N AT 09/0600 UTC...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. BROAD LARGE
SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA
THROUGH WHICH THIS WAVE IS MOVING. AN AREA OF COMPARATIVELY
COLDER CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IS FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W
AND 32W. IT WAS BELIEVED SIX HOURS AGO THAT THIS WAS A POSSIBLE
AREA OF PRECIPITATION...MAYBE AND MAYBE NOT.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W TO THE SOUTH OF 20N
AT 09/0600 UTC...MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AT THIS TIME.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM AFRICA NEAR 11N14W TO 7N20W 4N30W 1N47W...INTO NORTHEASTERN 
BRAZIL NEAR 1N56W. STRONG MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2S TO 4N BETWEEN 37W AND 48W. STRONG 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 5.5N11W.
WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLE WEAKENING CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION ARE IN AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS FROM 8N TO 10N 
BETWEEN 16W AND 18W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 70W...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N76W
TO A 28N77W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS
AND WESTERN CUBA...TO A 20N81W NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
CYCLONIC CENTER TO WEST-CENTRAL HONDURAS. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF 20N.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS FOR THE 
PERIOD ENDING AT 09/0000 UTC IS 1.27 INCHES. SCATTERED STRONG 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN 
NICARAGUA...IN SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL AREAS OF NICARAGUA...AND
IN PANAMA TO THE WEST OF 81W. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS FLAT AND WEAK AT THIS TIME.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEASTERN 
NICARAGUA...SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL NICARAGUA...AND IN PANAMA
ARE RELATED TO THE DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND 
SOUTHEAST OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 71W. THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL 
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT MOVES FROM JUST TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS GUADELOUPE ALSO IS BEING WRAPPED 
INTO THE LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN 21N51W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. 
 
THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N
TO THE WEST OF 70W IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH
AND THE SURFACE TROUGH. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N51W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ON WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 40W 
AND 62W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN
49W AND 55W.

$$
MT