000 AXNT20 KNHC 062348 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT JUN 06 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W S OF 7N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. REMAINING EMBEDDED MAINLY WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS...A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM IS NOTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS OVER NE BRAZIL S OF THE EQUATOR. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WAVE HAS FRACTURED OFF AS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ALONG 20N55W TO 25N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 390 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 6-10N AND WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 5N-10N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN ALSO BE FOUND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH TO THE NE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 5N22W 1N40W 2N50W AND INLAND ACROSS NE BRAZIL AND THE ERN GUYANAS REGION NEAR 3N57W. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 10W-13W AND FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 52W-57W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER SE GEORGIA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. AT THE SURFACE...THE ASSOCIATED 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER SE GEORGIA NEAR 31N82W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW THROUGH TAMPA BAY AND INTO THE ERN GULF ALONG 27N83W 25N85W 21N90W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS PRIMARILY E OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITHIN THE STRAITS OF FL AND EASTWARD TO NEAR 75W. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE MORE NUMEROUS SW OF THE LOW CENTER OVER THE FL/GA BORDER. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS PASSES FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...THROUGH THE WRN GULF TO NEAR 20N97W...AND ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE W OF 85W. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CAN BE FOUND IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH A SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 10N82W AND A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW EAST TO 11N80W 12N75W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CAN BE FOUND OVER THIS REGION...WEDGED BETWEEN THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH HONDURAS AND THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FOUND WITHIN 150 NM N QUADRANT OF THE SURFACE LOW AND MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOUND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM N OF THE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MEANWHILE...THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 59W WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MAKE ITS WAY WESTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...REACHING 70W BY MON MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE W ATLC WITH AN AXIS ALONG 69W IS BOOKENEDED BY AN UPPER LOW OVER SE GEORGIA AND AN UPPER LOW NEAR 25N56W. MOIST SW TO SOUTHERLY UPPER FLOW DOMINATES THE W ATLC W OF 69W WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE AXIS LIFTING THIS MOISTURE AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS PRIMARILY WITHIN THE STRAITS OF FL AND EASTWARD TO NEAR 75W AS WELL AS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE IS PRESENT ANCHORED ON A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31N51W. ASIDE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ...TROPICAL WAVES...AND SURFACE TROUGH FROM 20N55W TO 25N50W...FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES MOST OF THE ATLC WATERS E OF 69W. $$ HUFFMAN/SCHAUER CLARK