000 AXNT20 KNHC 021731 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE JUN 02 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W S OF 10N MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED SOME TURNING IN THE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. IN ADDITION 30 METER LEVEL STREAMLINES INDICATED SOME CYCLONIC TURNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE AXIS OF THE WAVE AS WELL. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND PERSISTS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS AND NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE ITCZ FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 30-36W...ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 70W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASE IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS HAS ACTED TO SUPPRESS ALL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. SLIGHT CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL TURNING IS APPARENT IN THE WINDS BETWEEN BUOYS 42058 AND 42059. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 5N20W 4N32W 1N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS DISPLACED WELL AWAY FROM THE ITCZ FROM 1N TO 4N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 20W-25W...FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 30W-43W...AND S OF 3N W OF 46W. THE AREA OF SCATTERED TSTM FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 20W-25W IS MOVING WWD 10-15 KT AND COULD HAMPER SEARCH EFFORTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CRASH OF AIR FRANCE FLIGHT 447 NEAR THE ARCHIPELAGO OF SAINT PETER AND PAUL...4N29W TONIGHT AND WED. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF FROM 24N89W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N95W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS AND STRONG SW/W DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG 95W/96W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 90W-92W. THE MOST ORGANIZED ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING N OF THE TROUGH IN AN AREA FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 91W-94W...AND ALSO ALONG AND JUST TO THE S OF THE LOUISIANA COAST. SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NE WATERS IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. LOOKING AHEAD...NWP MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SFC TROUGH WILL LIFT N AND BECOME DIFFUSE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MID-UPPER PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WRN HALF AND TROUGHING OVER THE ERN HALF. STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SFC TROUGH OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TSTM OVER GUATEMALA... BELIZE...YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE ATMOSPHERE IS MORE STABLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN IN AN UPPER CONFLUENT AREA BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND RIDGE. SW FLOW ALOFT E OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS ADVECTING MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE DEEP MOISTURE IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA. TRADE WINDS REMAIN 20-30 KT ACROSS THE S CENTRAL PORTION DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH OVER THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC AND LOWER PRES OVER NRN SOUTH AMERICA. A 1038 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED 30+ KT WINDS WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 12N76W. WINDS NEAR 20 KT EXIST OVER THE TOPOGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED GULF OF HONDURAS. LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE FLOWS ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLC DISCUSSION ZONE ARE QUIET...WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO MENTION. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 23N TO 28N W OF 65W...INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND A WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT HAS SPREAD THE ASSOCIATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS MOISTURE WELL TO THE NE WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 28N55W THROUGH 32N48W. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED DEEP LAYER RIDGING DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC...THOUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 26N48W IS INTERRUPTING THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY. NONETHELESS...FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SHALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE E ATLC IS MAINLY UNDER AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A DEEP LOW CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED NM N OF THE AZORES. A SECONDARY SMALLER 1018 MB LOW IS LOCATED TO ITS SW NEAR 30N39W SLIDING SWD. SFC OBSERVATIONS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A PRONOUNCED NE-SW ELONGATION OF THE SECONDARY LOW AND BASED ON THE AVAILABLE DATA...WINDS APPEAR MAINLY LESS THAN 20 KT. DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ...PARTICULARLY E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 33W. $$ COBB