000 AXNT20 KNHC 020005 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON JUN 01 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 30/31W FROM 2N-9N AND IS MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 26W-30W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN ALONG 65W S OF 15N MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT. THE WAVE HAS BEEN TRACKABLE ON THE SSMI/AMSRE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W TO 4N20W TO 5N30W TO 1N40W TO 1S48W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 17W-22W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 26W-30W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-1S BETWEEN 35W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N87W WHERE 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS 5-10 KT SE WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF S TEXAS FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 96W-99W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE W GULF FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 93W-95W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 88W-90W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE E GULF FROM 24N-25N BETWEEN 84W-87W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER INLAND S FLORIDA FROM 26N-27N BETWEEN 80W-81W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH TO DISSIPATE...AND A WEAK LOW TO FORM OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SEE ABOVE. FRESH TRADES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. STRONGEST WINDS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 80W-84W. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM EL SALVADOR TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER INLAND CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N83W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 68W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...THE NW CARIBBEAN...CUBA...AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. EXPECT...THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W OVER THE SRN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N64W TO 28N72W TO THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 26N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N51W. A 1016 MB LOW IS FURTHER E NEAR 32N41W. THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N21W TO 28N25W 26N30W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N60W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N48W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS OF THE LOW. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC BETWEEN 15W-40W. IN THE TROPICS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 7N35W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS BETWEEN 10W-60W ALONG 7N. A 50 KT JETSTREAM IS NOTED FROM 20N55W TO TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 16N24W. EXPECT THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO MOVE E TO NEAR 32N36W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. $$ FORMOSA