000 AXNT20 KNHC 301043 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W S OF 9N MOVING W 15-20 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS INDICATES THAT THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT IS EXHIBITING CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE WIND NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 6N BETWEEN 46W-53W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 5N23W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 39W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 6N E OF 5W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 3N BETWEEN 35W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT IS PRESENT ACROSS THE ERN GULF AND AT 30/0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM NEAR JACKSONVILLE TO CLEARWATER FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF ALONG 27N84W TO 25N92W. ALSO...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N88W INTO THE ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N92W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY ALONG AND E OF THE BOUNDARY IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SE GULF AND ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN FLORIDA PENINSULA S OF 27N. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN MOIST ZONAL WLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ACROSS THE N GULF AND N OF THE COLD FRONT...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT NELY WINDS ARE OBSERVED WHERE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS AND A SURFACE RIDGE ARE PRESENT. A FEW EWD MOVING SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE ACROSS THE WRN GULF FROM REMAINING SHOWERS ACROSS INLAND ERN MEXICO THIS MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT...ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL DRY SAHARAN AIR...ARE RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAINLY 15 TO 20 KT SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WRN CARIBBEAN WITH GLOBAL MODEL DATA DEPICTING THE STRONGEST WINDS...UP TO 25 KT...NEAR THE NRN COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. ALSO... ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN E OF 68W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC AND A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT IS DRAPED ALONG THE E COAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA TO JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED AT 30/0900 UTC E OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 33N77W TO 29N78W. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LOCATED WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE TROUGH AND EXTENDS S TO COVER THE AREA FROM 22N-29N W OF 71W... INCLUDING THE NW AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ALSO...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO THE NW OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 30N60W TO 20N50W ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 26N-33N BETWEEN 60W-66W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND EXTENDS FROM 25N55W TO 18N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED FROM 18N-26N BETWEEN 52W-58W. FARTHER TO THE E...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALONG 26N23W 21N35W 20N47W IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N26W ALONG 29N30W TO 27N34W CONTINUING WWD AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO 26N44W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. BEHIND THE FRONTS...A QUASI-STATIONARY 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 32N46W. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE HIGH IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ACROSS THE E ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE IS PRESENT WHERE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS OCCURRING AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS S OF 16N E OF 50W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH NEAR 5N32W. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ AND THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 50W S OF 9N. $$ HUFFMAN