000 AXNT20 KNHC 292310 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE HAS LOST ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ARE CENTERED NEAR 40.3N 62.3W AT 29/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 265 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 38N-40N BETWEEN 58W-60W. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS...WHICH CONTAINS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT OR SATURDAY. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W/49W S OF 9N MOVING W 15-20 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS INDICATES THAT THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. ALSO...CIMSS WAVETRAK PRODUCT INDICATES A MAXIMUM IN LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 4N BETWEEN 44W-49W. ADDITIONALLY...TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS INDICATES THAT A NORTH-SOUTH ELONGATED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM IS ALONG 19W S OF 9N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS FEATURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN 17W-22W. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CYCLONIC MOTION OF LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS NEAR THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA DO NOT YET CONFIRM THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE AT THE SURFACE NEAR THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL WAVE IS SUSPECTED TO BE PRESENT HERE...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 4N20W 1N28W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 35W EXTENDING TO 1S43W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN 17W-22W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO S OF 4N BETWEEN 24W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT IS PRESENT ACROSS THE N GULF AND EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N85W TO 27N89W TO 25N95W. ALSO...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N86W TO 22N91W ACROSS THE SW GULF TO 19N93W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COLD FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-27N E OF 88W. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN MOIST AND WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ACROSS THE N GULF TO THE N OF THE COLD FRONT...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS OCCURRING WHERE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS AND A SURFACE RIDGE ARE PRESENT. N TO NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS THE YUCATAN COAST THIS EVENING. CARIBBEAN SEA... DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL DRY SAHARAN AIR...ARE RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING CUBA...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...PANAMA...AND NEARBY COASTAL WATERS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THE STRONGEST OF THESE WINDS ARE FOUND NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...WHERE NE TO E WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT ARE OCCURRING. ALSO...ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 14N E OF 68W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF 23N W OF 72W INCLUDING THE NW BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND ADJACENT INLAND LOCATIONS OF FLORIDA. ALSO...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO THE NW OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N56W ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 62W-67W. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N65W TO 26N65W. FARTHER TO THE E...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NE OF THE DISCUSSION REGION TO 32N28W TO 28N33W TO 28N36W CONTINUING WESTWARD AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO 27N40W TO 28N45W. ALSO...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N56W TO 22N58W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD AND STATIONARY FRONTS AND SURFACE TROUGH. BEHIND THE FRONTS...A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 30N45W AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT DAY AND HAVE A PRESSURE OF 1023 MB AT 30/1800 UTC. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE HIGH IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER BEHIND THE COLD AND STATIONARY FRONTS. ACROSS THE E ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE IS PRESENT WHERE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS OCCURRING AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRESENT S OF 12N E OF 52W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH NEAR 8N26W. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ AND THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 48W/49W S OF 9N...AS WELL AS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 1W-9W. $$ COHEN