000 AXNT20 KNHC 291023 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE IS CENTERED NEAR 38.9N 66.3W AT 29/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 260 MILES...420 KM...SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS AND ABOUT 420 MILES...670 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MOVING ENE AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 38N-40N BETWEEN 64W-65W. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER COLDER WATERS AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W S OF 8N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS INDICATES THAT THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. ALSO...CIMSS WAVETRAK PRODUCT INDICATES A MAXIMUM IN LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND THE WAVE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-4S BETWEEN 43W-49W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 1N30W 1N40W EXTENDING INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR EQ49W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE W COAST OF AFRICA FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN 12W-19W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 22W-30W... AND FROM 1S-3S BETWEEN 35W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0900 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 31N84W 26N90W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 27N-28N BETWEEN 83W-86W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 18N-25N BETWEEN 95W-99W. NW 10-15 KT WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO HAVE SOUTHERLY 5-10 KT SURFACE FLOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER TEXAS AND THE NW GULF. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING THE SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE SE GULF S OF THE FRONT. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE GULF EXCEPT THE NW GULF WHERE SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED. EXPECT... THE COLD FRONT TO DRIFT E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST OVER S FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1010 MB LOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 72W-80W. FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 87W-91W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA... CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N72W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT...STRONGEST CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CUBA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA W OF 77W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 67W-69W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 27N54W 21N56W MOVING W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N30W 27N40W. A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N40W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE W ATLANTIC W OF 75W. A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-75W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 40W-50W. IN THE TROPICS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 10N17W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS E OF 40W. EXPECT...THE SHOWERS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 65W TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. $$ FORMOSA