000
AXNT20 KNHC 161055
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE LIBERIA COAST NEAR 6N10W TO 3N14W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 
22W...TO 2S30W INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 6S40W. ISOLATED AND 
DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 5N TO THE EAST 
OF 20W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 20W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN 
PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SOME OF THE 
CYCLONIC FLOW THAT HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAHAMAS-TO-CUBA-
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH OF YESTERDAY HAS MOVED INTO 
THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOST OF THE UPPER 
LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE 
RIDGE REACHES 85W. ANOTHER PART OF THAT FLOW MOVES TOWARD THE 
SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE TEXAS-TO-MEXICO PRECIPITATION FROM SIX 
HOURS AGO HAS DISSIPATED. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 86W TO THE 
SOUTH OF 27N. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO RUN THROUGH CENTRAL 
MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH NORTHERN GUATEMALA TO 20N100W TOWARD
THE FAR WEST TEXAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA...ACROSS CUBA TO 130 NM TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA...INTO 
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS TROUGH HAS PERSISTED 
IN MORE OR LESS THE SAME AREA FOR AT LEAST THE LAST 48 HOURS OR 
SO. MOIST UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS ON THE EASTERN 
SIDE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 
THE EAST OF 70W. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE TROUGH COVERS THE 
AREA ROUGHLY FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN 
COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE AREA TO THE NORTH 
OF THE LINE FROM THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TO 17N80W TO THE WATERS 
OF THE JAMAICA CHANNEL. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 78W/79W FROM
10N TO 13N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE FROM 10N 
TO 13N BETWEEN 75W AND 81W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 33N52W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTER TO 26N53W TO 22N60W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE COLD 
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1006 MB GALE CENTER NEAR 33N53W TO
30N50W 25N55W 24N65W...CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO 
26N70W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N 
BETWEEN 46W AND 56W. BROAD LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW MOVES ACROSS COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA 
TO THE EAST OF 70W...ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS 
AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...STAYING TO THE SOUTH OF 23N AS IT 
EVENTUALLY CROSSES 30W AND BEYOND. THE REMNANTS OF AN EARLIER 
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE ALONG THE LINE FROM 
32N22W TO 22N30W.

$$
MT