000
AXNT20 KNHC 151754
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...AMD
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2009

AMENDED IN ORDER TO INCLUDE THE 81W/82W SURFACE TROUGH
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N8W 2N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR 
NEAR 30W CONTINUING TO THE NE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 3S40W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-5S 
BETWEEN 22W-28W...AND FROM 2N-2S BETWEEN 40W-45W.  

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SE RETURN FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. 10-15 KT 
WINDS ARE OVER THE E GULF WHILE 15-20 KT WINDS ARE OVER THE W 
GULF W OF 90W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ARE OVER THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA AND S FLORIDA S OF 27N. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS 
FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SHIES WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W WITH SIGNIFICANT 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE 
BAHAMAS NEAR 25N75W PRODUCING NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE E 
GULF. EXPECT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO MOVE E OVER THE ENTIRE 
GULF IN 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT ON THE SURFACE MORE SHOWERS OVER W 
CUBA...FLORIDA...AND THE SE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 75W S 
OF 22N TO N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR 
JAMAICA FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 75W-77W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS 
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 75W-77W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 15N AND 
E OF 72W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COASTS OF N CUBA...AND  
OF PANAMA. EXPECT...THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE W AT 10 KT OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.     

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND 
BAHAMAS FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 77W-80W MOVING NW. A COLD FRONT IS 
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N52W 28N55W 26N60W 26N70W. A 
PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N50W 26N54W 23N60W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE TROUGH N OF 28N. A 
1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N30W. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N75W. 
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 34N54W. A THIRD UPPER 
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N31W. ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE SE OVER 
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.  

$$
FORMOSA