000
AXNT20 KNHC 090518
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT MAY 09 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W 1N30W CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 35W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 
5N-8N BETWEEN 10W-13W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
4N-6N BETWEEN 19W-21W...AND FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 24W-29W.  WITHIN 
150 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-29W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF NE BRAZIL FROM 
EQ-3S BETWEEN 37W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER 
NE TEXAS N OF 31N AND E OF 100W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER NE MEXICO FROM 20N-28N BETWEEN 
100W-103W. THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO HAVE SOUTHERLY RETURN 
FLOW. MOST WINDS ARE 10 KT EXCEPT OVER THE W GULF W OF 96W WHERE 
15-20 KT WINDS ARE NOTED. FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WEATHER WITH 
WARM TEMPERATURES PREVAILS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 
90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...ON THE 
SURFACE... CONTINUED FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SE FLOW 
OVER THE GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM 
TRAVERSES THE N GULF STATES.    

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST 
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM S 
NICARAGUA TO BELIZE. RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E 
OF 75W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN. 
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 
75W. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.    

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N49W. A 
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS W TO N FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 
PUERTO RICO FROM 19N-24N BETWEEN 57W-70W. A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT 
OF SAHARAN DUST HAS ALSO SPREAD TO ABOUT 50W...ACCORDING TO THE 
CIMSS SAL PRODUCT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS 
OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N72W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS 
FURTHER E BETWEEN 20W-50W. IN THE TROPICS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL 
HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 6N40W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W TO 
10N60W. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

$$
FORMOSA