000 AXNT20 KNHC 061037 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED MAY 06 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 5N9W 1N15W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 18W AND CONTINUING S OF THE EQUATOR ALONG 1S25W 2S30W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S42W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM THE EQUATOR TO 9N BETWEEN 9W-18W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 18W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE GULF REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL THIS MORNING AS SE SURFACE FLOW DOMINATES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION S OF A WARM FRONT LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE GULF COAST ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND N TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS SW ARKANSAS SUPPORTS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A PUSH OF MIDDLE TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING OVER THE NRN GULF WATERS N OF A LINE FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TO THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE GULF COAST AS A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC HOLDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND GULF WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL PATTERN DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE WRN CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER NICARAGUA WHICH IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND WRN CARIBBEAN TO 72W. THIS MOISTURE IS RESULTANT DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. ALOFT ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS FOUND E OF 70W. WEAK OVERALL CYCLONIC FLOW OF THE ELY TRADES ALONG WITH THE WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS E OF 70W. SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MOST CONCENTRATED AREA SOUTH OF THE ISLAND AND ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 67W. ELSEWHERE...LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN PRIMARILY DUE TO A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING WESTWARD IN CONVERGENT SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE W ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH LOCATED NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 36N57W. A WEAKNESS IN THE SURFACE RIDGE...ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS FROM 23N76W TO 28N76W. THIS SURFACE FEATURE HAS CONTINUED TO LOSE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS IT NOW CURRENTLY MOVES UNDER NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND A SUBSIDENT DRY AIRMASS. THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS TO THE E WITH AXIS ALONG 72W AND IS GENERATING AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WHICH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 200 NM OF A LINE FROM THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS N-NW TO 32N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS EXTEND FARTHER TO THE SE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND TROPICAL ATLC FROM 13N-21N BETWEEN 54W-65W. THE SECOND WEAKNESS IN THE ATLC SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AS AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS NEAR 36N32W PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 23N40W INTO A 1021 MB LOW NEAR 28N40W CONTINUING TO 33N38W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 32W-39W. $$ HUFFMAN