000 AXNT20 KNHC 060547 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED MAY 06 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 4N10W 1N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 22W AND CONTINUING S OF THE EQUATOR ALONG 2S26W 2S40W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 8W-15W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N E OF 15W. A SMALLER AREA OF SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 18W-24W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE GULF REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL THIS EVENING AS SELY SURFACE FLOW DOMINATES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION S OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE GULF COAST ACROSS THE SE CONUS. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS SW ARKANSAS SUPPORTS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A PUSH OF MIDDLE TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING SEWD FROM SRN TEXAS OUT OVER THE NW GULF WATERS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE GULF COAST AS A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC HOLDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE GULF WATERS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL PATTERN DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE WRN CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER NICARAGUA WHICH IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND WRN CARIBBEAN TO 73W. THIS MOISTURE IS RESULTANT DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. ALOFT ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS FOUND E OF 70W. WEAK OVERALL CYCLONIC FLOW OF THE ELY TRADES ALONG WITH THIS WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS E OF 70W. ELSEWHERE...LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN PRIMARILY DUE TO A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS MOVING WESTWARD IN CONVERGENT SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE W ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH LOCATED NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 35N53W. ONE WEAKNESS IN THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS LOCATED UNDER BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE W ATLC THAT IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SE BAHAMAS ALONG 75W TO NEAR 30N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OBSERVED WELL E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 18N-31N BETWEEN 63W-71W. THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED ON THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGHING WHERE A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ZONE IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE ERN CARIBBEAN NORTHWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS EXTEND FARTHER TO THE SE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM 13N-21N BETWEEN 54W-65W. THE SECOND WEAKNESS IN THE ATLC SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AS A SECOND LARGER UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS NEAR 32N36W PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 25N41W TO 32N37W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 27N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 31W-40W. $$ HUFFMAN