000 AXNT20 KNHC 050544 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE MAY 05 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 5N9W 2N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 35W AND CONTINUING ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 48W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AXIS ALONG 43W S OF 4N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 10W-18W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 21W-31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING COVERS THE ERN U.S. AND THE EXTREME NRN GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY INLAND ACROSS SRN MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA EXTENDING WWD ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS ARE S OF THE FRONT AS LIGHT SE SURFACE FLOW IS EVIDENT FROM SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH AN EARLIER QSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 0000 UTC. THESE WINDS ARE LOCATED ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE WRN GULF WATERS. AN UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN...THE RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SRN MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS SRN MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER VENEZUELA ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA E OF 75W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NW ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND SRN MEXICO. DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTING EWD OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN TO 80W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE MONA PASSAGE S ALONG 68W TO NEAR CARACAS VENEZUELA. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN AND LESSER ANTILLES E OF THE AXIS MAINLY N OF 12N. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN PRIMARILY DUE TO A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS MOVING WWD ACROSS THE BASIN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE ATLANTIC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A PAIR OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ANCHORED NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. ONE RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM 37N50W ACROSS BERMUDA TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ONE WEAKNESS ACROSS THE W ATLC IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N70W PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 23N72W TO 32N72W AND IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A LARGE DIFFLUENT ZONE IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE W ATLC AND IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN NWD INTO THE UPPER LOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND TROPICAL ATLC FROM 13N-26N BETWEEN 56W-66W. THE SECOND RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE E ATLC FROM SURFACE HIGH ANCHORED WELL N OF THE AZORES. THE WEAKNESS IN THE SURFACE RIDGE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AS A SECOND UPPER LOW NEAR 31N39W PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 25N40W TO BEYOND 32N40W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS FROM 27N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 31W-40W. $$ HUFFMAN