000 AXNT20 KNHC 300012 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED APR 29 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM W AFRICA AT 07N11W TO THE EQUATOR AT 23W THEN CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR TO 02S30W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 4S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 2N-2S BETWEEN 8W-12W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-1S BETWEEN 18W-22W...AND FROM EQ-1N BETWEEN 27W-31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED W OF BERMUDA PRODUCING 10-15 KT SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES PREVAIL. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF WITH AXIS FROM N FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE NW GULF AND TEXAS WHERE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED. EXPECT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO MOVE E AND DOMINATE THE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... FRESH TRADES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND E PANAMA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 72W-78W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER COSTA RICA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 82W-85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LEEWARD ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND A BAND OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUD EXTENDS FROM HONDURAS TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT...SHOWERS TO DOT THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A LARGE 1029 MB HIGH IS W OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N72W PRODUCING STRONG SE WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER OVER THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA. THIS SAME HIGH IS PRODUCING UNSEASONABLY WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AS FAR N AS NEW JERSEY AND AS FAR W AS OKLAHOMA. ANOTHER 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N46W. A THIRD SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N25W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N68W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-60W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 27N37W. IN THE TROPICS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR GUYANA AT 8N59W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 5N30W. $$ FORMOSA