000 AXNT20 KNHC 261054 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 2N16W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 25W EXTENDING TO 1S30W 2S35W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 4S40W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 4N BETWEEN 3W-7W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 5N BETWEEN 9W-14W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 14W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 2N BETWEEN 41W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRESENT ACROSS THE GULF REGION WITH THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 19N95W TO 24N88W TO N FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W. TO THE W OF THIS TROUGH AXIS...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FAR W GULF...WHERE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE IS INCREASING. ALSO...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE E OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N BETWEEN 84W-88W. HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE SE CONUS FROM A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 33N69W IS CURRENTLY RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF REGION. THE FLOW AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE IS RESULTING IN E TO SE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF...WITH E WINDS UP TO 30 KT ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND E TO SE WINDS UP TO 30 KT OFF THE NW COAST OF YUCATAN. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF REGION...WITH THE ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY SUPPORTING THE AFOREMENTIONED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 33N69W IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FOUND NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...WHERE NE TO E SURFACE WINDS UP TO 30 KT ARE OCCURRING. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRESENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...THE TRADE WINDS ARE ADVECTING POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF THESE SHOWERS IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 62W-76W. ALSO...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 25N60W TO 29N55W TO 32N52W TO NE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THIS FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE NE QUADRANT OF AN 80-90 KT UPPER LEVEL WIND SPEED MAXIMUM LOCATED SW OF THE SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT. TO THE W OF THE SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 33N69W ARE RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. DURING THE NEXT DAY...THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD AND BE LOCATED NEAR 32N72W AS A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH AT 27/0600 UTC. FARTHER TO THE E...SUBSIDENCE IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE RIDGE IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC. HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 25N29W TO 29N23W TO 32N18W TO NE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ARE RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 26N BETWEEN 14W-23W. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRESENT WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 10N14W TO 6N27W TO 1N37W. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. $$ COHEN