000 AXNT20 KNHC 260507 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N7W 1N17W 2N29W 1N35W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 38W EXTENDING TO 1S40W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 1W-5W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO S OF 5N BETWEEN 7W-19W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 2N BETWEEN 41W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRESENT ACROSS THE GULF REGION WITH THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 20N94W TO 25N90W TO THE W FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N85W. TO THE W OF THIS TROUGH AXIS...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FAR W GULF...WHERE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE IS INCREASING. ALSO...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE E OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 19N BETWEEN 91W-93W. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND E GULF...AS WELL AS SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE SE CONUS FROM A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 34N69W...ARE CURRENTLY RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF REGION. THE FLOW AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE IS RESULTING IN E TO SE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF...WITH E WINDS UP TO 30 KT ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF REGION. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 34N69W IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FOUND NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...WHERE NE TO E SURFACE WINDS UP TO 30 KT ARE OCCURRING. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRESENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...THE TRADE WINDS ARE ADVECTING POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF THESE SHOWERS IS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 67W-76W. ALSO...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 25N60W TO 29N54W TO 32N52W TO NE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THIS FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE NE QUADRANT OF A 75-85 KT UPPER LEVEL WIND SPEED MAXIMUM LOCATED SW OF THE SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT. TO THE W OF THE SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 34N69W ARE RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. DURING THE NEXT DAY...THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD AND BE LOCATED NEAR 32N71W AS A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH AT 27/0000 UTC. FARTHER TO THE E...SUBSIDENCE IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE RIDGE IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC. HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N28W TO 29N24W TO 32N19W TO NE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ARE RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 26N BETWEEN 18W-25W. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRESENT WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 10N13W TO 6N26W TO 2N39W. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. $$ COHEN