000 AXNT20 KNHC 112347 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 2N15W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 20W AND EXTENDING ALONG 3S30W AND INTO E BRAZIL NEAR 5S36W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 12W-20W. SIMILAR CONVECTION REMAINS S OF THE EQUATOR TO 4S BETWEEN 18W-25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS ALONG THE ERN U.S. SEABOARD AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS TO NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA AND CONTINUES AS A WARM FRONT WWD INTO A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 30N84W AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW INTO THE GULF FROM THE SURFACE LOW ALONG 29N85W TO 28N90W WHERE THE FRONT STALLS AND CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 28N95W TO INLAND ACROSS EXTREME SRN TEXAS NEAR 27N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ERN GULF WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE NRN GULF WATERS. S OF THE FRONTS W OF 85W...SE TO ELY SURFACE FLOW OF UP TO 20 KTS AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS OBSERVED. THE SELY SURFACE RETURN FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AS THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SRN PLAIN STATES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF LATE MONDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN WITH SURFACE WIND CONVERGENCE NOTED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 12N W OF 77W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR UNDER WEAK TROUGHING ACROSS THE BASIN IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IS LIMITING AND PRECIPITATION TO ISOLATED SHALLOW LOW- LEVEL SHOWERS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS ALONG THE ERN U.S. SEABOARD AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N76W AND EXTENDS TO NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. ALTHOUGH A THIN ROPE CLOUD IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH THIS FRONT REMAINS N OF 32N. AT 2100 UTC...A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 29N79W S-SW ACROSS THE SERN FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT AS DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS TO DIMINISH. FARTHER TO THE E ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC... AN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 65W TO NEAR PUERTO RICO IS GENERATING SCATTERED CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 22N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 57W-67W. ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC...AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N27W AND IT IS PRODUCING LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WHILE AT THE SURFACE...A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED S OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N28W IS PROVIDING NE TO ELY SURFACE FLOW AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ATLC E OF 60W. $$ HUFFMAN