000
AXNT20 KNHC 021720
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU APR 02 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N7W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 14W 
TO 2S20W 2S30W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 4S38W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-3S BETWEEN 31W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS ALONG THE COAST OF S TEXAS S OF 
CORPUS CHRISTI FROM 28N96W TO 26N98W MOVING SE. A PREFRONTAL 
FRONT EXTENDS FROM SW LOUISIANA TO NE MEXICO ALONG 30N93W 
26N97W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF 
LOUISIANA FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 92W-94W. 25-30 KT NW WINDS ARE 
BEHIND THE FRONT. 15-20 KT S WINDS ARE E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. 
ONSHORE FLOW IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE N OF 29N 
BETWEEN 83W-87W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF 
THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW 
PREVAILS. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N 
OF 26N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE S GULF. EXPECT...THE COLD 
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 
24 HOURS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH VERY LITTLE 
SHOWER ACTIVITY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES 
E OF 62W...OVER HISPANIOLA...AND OVER JAMAICA. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN 
ALONG 80W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. 
EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1013 MB LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 34N73W. A 
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 31N76W. A WARM FRONT 
CONTINUES W TO S GEORGIA AND S ALABAMA TO 32N88W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 30N W OF 80W. ANOTHER 1015 
MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N41W. A COLD 
FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 27N45W 21N54W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1024 MB HIGH IS 
CENTERED NW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 33N21W. AN AREA OF 
AFRICAN DUST IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 15N E OF 
30W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 
20N BETWEEN 55W-80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 45W-55W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS 
CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 7N20W. A RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDS W FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 4N51W. ZONAL 
FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT A COLD FRONT 
TO BE OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA FROM 32N79W TO N FLORIDA IN 24 
HOURS WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT A STATIONARY FRONT TO BE OVER 
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N40W TO 24N48W IN 24 HOURS WITH 
SHOWERS.
  
$$
FORMOSA